Crude oil was trading around $87.42, consolidating above the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) and above the 3/8 Murray level, and around the 4/8 Murray level, so the instrument is likely to continue rising in the coming days until it reaches the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $92.73.

Technically, crude oil could pull back toward $85.88, near the 21-day simple moving average (SMA); if this pullback occurs, it could be considered a buying opportunity, as the price is technically in a strong uptrend after consolidating for several days above $84.37.

If crude oil remains above $87.50—above the Murray 4/8 level—in the coming hours, the outlook will remain bullish, and we could buy with targets at the psychological level of $90, the Murray 5/8 level around $90.62, and, finally, we expect it to reach the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) around $92.73.

If crude oil returns to the Murray 3/8 level at $84.37 In the coming days and the price consolidates above this zone, it will be considered a positive signal to resume buying.

If the price falls below $84, the outlook for crude oil could change, and we could expect it to reach the 2/8 Murray level around 81.25; it could eventually reach the psychological level of $80 and might even continue falling until it reaches the 1/8 Murray level around $78.

Given that the Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, a pullback in crude oil could be viewed as a buying opportunity, provided the price remains within the small uptrend channel that is forming.

After five matchups, the Knights have collected six points, with forward Jakub Kolenič topping the club's scoring leaderboard. For the international brand InstaForex, a multi-year partner of HKM Zvolen, this start serves as a textbook example of a key principle: in elite athletics, the deciding factor is not a fleeting spark, but the capacity to stay resilient over the course of a long campaign.

A Flawless Launch: The Derby in Banská Bystrica and Home Success

The Knights launched their season with one of the calendar's marquee fixtures: the away Pohronie derby against Banská Bystrica. Clashes of this prestige demand peak alertness from the opening shifts; intense rivalries punish any loss of momentum.

Zvolen established its winning foundation in the first period. Seasoned defenseman and team captain Juraj Valach opened the scoring in the third minute and struck again in the fifteenth to complete a brace. Shortly before the horn, Brooklyn Kalmikov stretched the visitors' advantage to 3:1. Daniel Vladimír Tkáč and Aurel Nauš later added goals of their own. While the hosts staged a late push, Zvolen preserved the edge for a 5:3 win. Valach, who added an assist to his two goals, took home player of the match honors.

The squad sustained that momentum during their home opener at TIPOSBET Arena against Liptovský Mikuláš. Trailing 0:1 after the first twenty minutes, the Knights orchestrated a complete turnaround:

• In the 22nd minute, Daniel Vladimír Tkáč leveled the score;
• Shortly after, Tkáč set up Jozef Kukoš, putting the team ahead;
• Early in the third period, Tkáč notched his second goal of the night;
• Jakub Kolenič sealed the contest, locking in a 4:1 win.

Through two rounds, HKM Zvolen secured maximum points—6 points with 9 goals scored. The dynamic young forward unit of Tkáč – Nemec – Kolenič announced itself emphatically, contributing to three of the four scoring plays.

The Finishing Dilemma: When Pressure Fails to Yield Goals

Yet a championship marathon inevitably brings adversity. The road trip to Michalovce provided the first true character test. At even strength, Zvolen dictated tempo and threatened constantly, with Juraj Valach and Jakub Kolenič finding the net. The contest was ultimately decided on special teams: the hosts converted their power-play chances with ruthless efficiency to claim a 3:2 victory.

Round four featured a visit from a domestic heavyweight as Slovan Bratislava arrived at Pustý Hrad. Following an even opening frame, a sudden drop-off in the second period saw the visitors tally four unanswered goals. Jakub Kolenič scored the solitary consolation goal, assisted by Richard Nemec and Daniel Tkáč. The game concluded in a 1:6 defeat, though Kolenič's high work rate earned him HKM player of the game honors.

The round-five home contest against Dukla Trenčín developed into an outright paradox of efficiency. Zvolen controlled play entirely, hemming the opposition into their defensive zone. The shot ledger was overwhelmingly lopsided—45 to 17 in favor of the Knights. However, an extraordinary performance by visiting netminder Dávid Hrenák neutralized dozens of high-danger chances. After falling behind by two goals, Zvolen revived hope in the 44th minute when Aurel Nauš struck off a feed from Alex Bartakovics. Yet an opponent power-play marker set the final tally at 1:3.

Numbers and Leaders: A Foundation for the Next Leap

Through five opening fixtures, HKM Zvolen's record stands at two wins, three defeats, 6 points, and a 13:16 goal differential. The high-scoring output of the early games gave way to a finishing slump: four goals across the last three rounds despite producing high offensive volume.

Individual contributions from key leaders confirm the roster's scoring capacity:

1. Jakub Kolenič — 7 points (3 goals + 4 assists), a "+4" rating, and 1.4 points per contest.
2. Daniel Vladimír Tkáč — 6 points (3 goals + 3 assists) with a "+4" rating; a dependable top-line forward.
3. Juraj Valach — 4 points (3 goals + 1 assist). The captain registered 19 shots on goal, leading the roster.
4. Aurel Nauš — 3 points (2 goals + 1 assist), offering vital secondary offensive support.

Critically, the trio of Kolenič, Tkáč, and Valach produced 9 of the club's 13 goals, while Kolenič and Tkáč combined for 13 points, underlining the maturity of the primary forward unit.

Partnership Philosophy: The Long Run Sets the Standard

For InstaForex, multi-year support for HKM Zvolen extends beyond standard corporate sponsorship. This alliance rests on shared core values: discipline, perseverance, and dedication to systematic progress.

Elite sports offer no simple paths. A lineup can control possession and outshoot its rival, yet still drop points against an inspired goaltender. In moments like these, core resilience is everything. True professionalism means reviewing facts dispassionately, filtering out emotion, and systematically converting future chances.

Brand support does not engineer automatic wins on the ice. Athletic triumph is created exclusively through player execution, individual effort, and tactical preparation by the coaching staff. InstaForex's objective is to deliver a steady operational foundation and consistent backing, celebrating decisive victories while standing firm through tough competitive stretches.

The Tipsport Liga regular season is merely getting started. A long campaign awaits where the Knights will look to translate on-ice control into standings points. When a squad stays true to its structure and leans on dependable partners, weathering short-term downturns becomes a natural step toward sustainable success.

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading around 1.1053 within the downtrend channel that has formed since October 3, below the 3/8 Murray line, the 21-period simple moving average (SMA), and the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), under downward pressure.

The euro has reached solid support levels around 1.1050, and from a technical perspective, we would expect it to consolidate above this zone in the coming days.

If EUR/USD were to rebound above 1.1050, this could be considered a buying opportunity, with targets at 1.1084 (around the 3/8 Murray line), 1.1120, and finally around the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1226.

On the other hand, if bearish momentum prevails and the euro breaks below the downtrend channel, EUR/USD could reach the 2/8 Murray level, around 1.0986. This level could prove decisive, as it is expected to act as strong support and could trigger a sharp technical rebound above this area.

If the euro consolidates above 1.1053, the outlook could be favorable for a buying opportunity; the first target could be around 1.1120, and a stop-loss could be placed below 1.1040.

The Eagle indicator has reached extremely oversold levels and stands at around five points, suggesting that the euro is likely to rebound in the coming days.

The requirement for participation is simple:

Just top up your trading account at any point this month!

Add funds to your balance, take part in the giveaway, and claim your $11,000!

Register

Bitcoin fell below $69,226 following a sharp decline during the European trading session on Friday, November 13, hitting a low of $67,500. This level coincided with the lower band of the downtrend channel that had formed since late October, and Bitcoin is now rebounding, which could pave the way for a recovery in the coming days.

If Bitcoin re-tests $67,500 in the coming hours, or if the price consolidates above the Murray 2/8 level—which now acts as strong support around $68,750— this could be considered a buying opportunity, with targets at the 21-day simple moving average (SMA), around $72,867.

A pullback in Bitcoin toward $68,750 or $67,000 is considered a positive buy signal, as the Eagle indicator has reached extremely oversold levels and is generating a positive signal; however, we should still wait for consolidation around $68,000 before opening long positions.

Our outlook remains bullish for the coming days; therefore, as long as the price trades above the Murray 2/8 level, it will be considered a buying opportunity with targets at $72,867 and at the Murray 4/8 level, around $75,000.

A consolidation below today's low of around $67,500 could change the outlook for Bitcoin, and we could see a strong downtrend continue, reaching $65,000 and possibly even the psychological level of $60,000.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on September 7, 8, 30 and October 1, 2026.

September 7, 2026

Early close 23:00

• STOXX50.x
• F40.x
• DAX40.x
• UK100.x

Early close 22:00

• HK50.x

Early close 21:30

• GOLD
• GOLD.m
• XAUUSD
• XAUUSD.m
• SILVER
• SILVER.m
• XPDUSD
• XPDUSD.m
• #CL
• #NG

Early close 20:30

• BRENT

Early close 20:00

• JP225
• SPX500
• NASDAQ100
• DJ30

Pricing Off:

• US Shares

September 8, 2026

Late open 03:00

• UK100.x

September 30, 2026

Early close 22:00

• HK50

October 1, 2026

Pricing Off:

• HK50

Gold is trading around $3,888 under downward pressure, below the Murray 2/8 level and the 21- and 200-day moving averages, showing signs of exhaustion in the downward momentum and potentially signaling a technical rebound in the coming days.

Yesterday, during the US trading session, in an attempt to close the gap left on October 30 around $3,875 from the high of $4,145, the price fell to $3,859. Although the likelihood of a trend reversal was uncertain for bulls, technically, the price was expected to fall below this zone to close the gap.

Our view is that the price will consolidate above $3,850. If a technical rebound occurs in the coming hours around $3,859—which represents the November 12 low—a double-bottom pattern could show up. If a technical rebound occurs, this could be interpreted as a clear buy signal, suggesting that the price will reach the psychological level of $4,000 in the coming days.

Conversely, if gold falls below $3,850, we would expect it to continue its downtrend, with the next support level located around 1/8 Murray, at $3,750. This level could serve as a solid bottom for gold; however, from a technical standpoint, we expect a recovery above $3,850 in the coming days.

Our trading plan For the next few hours is to buy gold around $3,880 or $3,850, with a target at the 21-day SMA at 3,990; ultimately, we could expect it to reach the 2/8 Murray level around $4,062 in the coming days.

How to participate?

It’s simple: fund your trading account in September and get a chance to win the grand prize.

The beginning of autumn is the perfect time to set new trading goals. Join the Chancy Deposit promotion and compete for $7,000 credited to your trading account.

Top up your account, enter the campaign, and brighten your autumn with InstaForex!

Register

Several factors are putting pressure on the market. From October 30 to November 11, more than $2.5 billion left US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Just in the week of November 2–6, outflows reached $1.28 billion. At the same time, stablecoin supplies fell by $14.2 billion over 30 days, meaning there is less fresh liquidity for purchases. Bitcoin's correlation with US stocks has risen to the highest since May 2022, so any bad news for the Nasdaq immediately flows into crypto — as on November 5, when the Nasdaq 100 lost 6.4%, and Bitcoin plunged nearly 5.8% at the worst of the drop.

The next important milestone is ahead. This afternoon, the US will publish the Producer Price Index for October. The market expects a 0.4% monthly increase and 6.6% year-on-year after previous readings of 1.3% and 6.3%; core PPI (ex food and energy) is forecast at 0.3% month-on-month after 0.7%. In September, PPI unexpectedly rose 1.3% (vs. 0.5% expected), the largest increase since March 2022, and Bitcoin then briefly slipped below $80,000 (the low since September 18) before quickly returning to $81,000. The situation is tougher now because CPI in October beat forecasts for the third month in a row, and a 25-bp Fed hike on December 9 is already fully priced in.

That is why the danger is not the number itself but the divergence between the actual figure and the forecast. If PPI significantly exceeds 0.4% and core PPI tops 0.3%, yields and the dollar will rise, and the market will start pricing not only a 25-bp move in December but also the possibility of a larger step — which Waller has mentioned — plus additional hikes after March. For Bitcoin, which is tied to equities, that is a double blow; in such a scenario, a move to the 200-week average near $67,700 is likely, and if that zone is lost, the capitulation area around $64,500 could be reached. If instead the data come in well below expectations, yields and the dollar will retreat, fears about Fed hawkishness will ease, short sellers will be forced out, and Bitcoin could bounce to $70,400 and higher. However, with weak ETF inflows, such a rebound, in my view, would likely be short-lived.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is currently trading inside a range from $69,100 to $69,600, and the plan is built around two mirror scenarios with a full set of breakout and rejection outcomes. For long positions, I consider a breakout above $69,600 targeting $70,400, where I would take profits and possibly reverse into a short on the pullback, provided price stays above the 50-day SMA and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. If a break below $69,100 fails and proves to be a false breakout, a buy from that floor targets a return to $69,600 and then $70,400.

For short positions, the key is a confirmed break below $69,100 with a target of $68,100, provided the 50-day SMA sits above the price, and the Awesome Oscillator falls below zero. If the market cannot hold above $69,600, a rejection from the top opens a short back to $69,100 and then to $68,100.

Ethereum

The logic for Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale. The range runs from $1,942 to $1,952; buys are considered after a breakout above $1,952 with a target of $1,979, where profits would be taken, and a short on the pullback may be allowed under the same 50-day SMA and Awesome conditions. A rejection at $1,942 on an unconfirmed downside breakout gives a buy first to $1,952 and then to $1,979.

For short positions, a confirmed break below $1,942 targets $1,912, provided the SMA is above price and Awesome is below zero. Alternatively, a rejection from $1,952 can lead to a fall back to $1,942 and then $1,912. Both indicators are used only as filters to weed out false moves and are not standalone entry signals — decisions should be made only after price confirms the levels indicated.

Under the renewed contract, InstaForex retains its status as the club's official partner. The company's logo will continue to adorn the ice arena and the team's uniforms, while Peter Jandura, the broker's representative in Slovakia, will continue to attend matches in Zvolen in person and support the team from the stands.

The new Tipsport Liga season for Zvolen kicks off on September 15, 2026. In the opening round, the team will play an away match against Banská Bystrica, launching their campaign for championship points.

Meanwhile, Zvolen is actively preparing for the season under head coach Marek Zadina. Preparations are proceeding as scheduled—all players are healthy and fit, and the team is training injury-free.

Changes have also affected the coaching staff. Former Latvian national team player Jānis Andersons has joined the staff, while Jozef Budaj is currently combining his club duties with responsibilities for the Slovak U18 national team.

The roster is also being gradually finalized. Goaltender Lukáš Klimeš and defenseman Gianni Fairbrother have already joined training, with forwards Brooklyn Kalmikov, Sean Josling, and center Cole Cassels expected to arrive in the coming days.

Ahead for Zvolen are fitness testing for players and their first home preseason exhibition game against Czech club Berani Zlín.

Technical Analysis and Price Action

Price Channel Structure: The price is moving within a primary, moderately sloped ascending channel (in blue), which reflects a gradual recovery. Intersecting this is a secondary, steeply sloped ascending channel (in red) that drove the recent bullish surge toward a local peak near 89.10. Currently, the price is testing the lower boundary of the red channel following a period of mild profit-taking; however, it remains positioned within the upper half of the primary blue channel, suggesting an attempt to establish a new base for further upward movement.

Interaction with Daily Pivot Levels: The price has successfully broken above the daily pivot point at 87.67 and has managed to stabilize there. This positive positioning above the pivot gives buyers (bulls) a clear advantage in controlling the current session, paving the way for a retest of the recent intraday high, with the potential to subsequently target the first daily resistance level (Daily R1) at 90.16.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Key Resistance Levels:

First Resistance: 89.05 – 89.15 (the most recent intraday high and the upper boundary of the main channel).

Second Resistance: 90.16 (the first daily resistance level, Daily R1, and a significant psychological barrier).

Pivotal Resistance: 91.61 (the second daily resistance level, Daily R2, and the extended upper boundary of the ascending channel).

Key Support Levels:

First Support: 87.67 (the daily pivot point and the threshold for the intraday trend).

Second Support: 86.22 (the first daily support level, Daily S1, and the midline of the ascending channel).

Pivotal Support: 83.73 (the second daily support level, Daily S2, and an area of previous major lows).

Price Action Outlook and Trading Recommendations:

Bullish Scenario (Primary):

A positive trajectory is the most likely outcome, provided the price remains stable above the daily pivot point of 87.67 and stays within the boundaries of the main ascending channel.

Recommendation: It is advisable to enter long positions during any mild corrective pullback toward the 87.80 – 88.00 range, as long as the key support/anchor zones remain intact.

Technical Targets: Aim to retest the intraday high at 89.10, followed by an extension toward the first daily resistance level at 90.16. Bearish Scenario (Alternative):

This scenario is triggered if selling pressure returns and the price fails to maintain its position above the pivot point, potentially leading to a deeper corrective wave.

Confirmation Condition: A clear hourly candle close below the daily pivot level of 87.67.

Technical Targets: A decline toward the first daily support level at 86.22, followed by a move toward the lower boundary of the channel, near 85.00.

Risk Management:

Crude oil trading is characterized by rapid movement and sharp volatility around pivot points and price channels. Therefore, it is essential to strictly adhere to capital management rules—risking no more than 2% of the total portfolio on any single trade—and to consistently employ stop-loss orders to protect the account against any sudden reversals.

the price on the daily chart for crude oil:

The price is currently trading at 88.20 levels near the lower border of the ascending channel and the first monthly support levels (Monthly S1) at 89.59, recording serious attempts to build a support base and return to stability within the range of ascending channels.

Analysis of the last two candles (yesterday and today's candle):

Yesterday's candle: It reflected attempts at a positive rebound and absorbing part of the previous selling pressure near the bottoms.

Today's candle: It shows the continued pursuit of consolidation and an attempt to break through the 88.20 areas to regain positive momentum and return to trading within the ascending channel.

Forecast of upcoming movement:

Positive (rebound) scenario: It is activated if the price succeeds in stabilizing above the current support levels and breaching the 89.59 level (Monthly S1) again, which paves the way to return within the ascending channels and target the resistance levels and proximity to the monthly pivot point at 100.05.

Negative scenario (alternative): It continues if selling pressure returns and attempts to return to the channel fail, which pushes the price to record an additional decline towards the next support levels at 76.41 (Monthly S2).

To enter this festive draw, you do not need to calculate ten moves ahead. Just make one simple, decisive move: fund your trading account.

Fortune favors the bold. Join now and win the top prize!

Register

The test of the 160.01 price level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 12 points, and that was the extent of the move.

The yen remains under pressure from the dollar, and today it faces another test. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released in the second half of the day and is expected to slow from 1.3% to 0.4% m/m. This will be followed by speeches from Collins, Bowman, and Daly. Collins previously described interest rates as moderately restrictive, while Daly had earlier considered monetary policy to be in a good position but acknowledged yesterday that further tightening was necessary. Markets are already pricing in 25-basis-point rate hikes in December, January, and March.

With the Bank of Japan's interest rate at 1.25%, the central bank is also approaching another policy move. The swap market estimates the probability of a rate hike in December at approximately 87%, which partly limits the pair's upside above 160.00. Speeches by FOMC members will be the decisive factor. Susan Collins previously described interest rates as moderately restrictive, Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak next, and Mary Daly stated yesterday that further tightening was necessary, although she had previously assessed monetary policy as being in a good position. If the hawkish tone persists, even a soft PPI reading will quickly be overshadowed.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buying USD/JPY is planned today when the price reaches the entry point around 160.01 (the thin green line on the chart), with a target of a rise to 160.39 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.39, long positions will be closed, and short positions will be opened in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from this level). A rise in the pair today can only be expected following strong US economic data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: USD/JPY can also be bought today if the price tests the 159.84 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 160.01 and 160.39 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling USD/JPY is planned today after the 159.84 level is breached (the thin red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 159.45, where short positions will be closed and long positions opened immediately in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from this level). Selling pressure on the pair could return today if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started falling from it.

Scenario #2: USD/JPY can also be sold today if the price tests the 160.01 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 159.84 and 159.45 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take overbought and oversold conditions into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially when large position sizes are used without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders from the outset.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on July 2-3, 2026

July 2, 2026

Late open 04:15

• HK50.x

July 3, 2026

Early close 23:00

• STOXX50.x
• STOXX50
• F40.x
• UK100.x

Early close 22:00

• HK50.x

Early Close 20:30

• #BRENT.z
• BRENT

Early Close 20:00

• Metals
• GOLD
• GOLD.m
• XAUUSD
• XAUUSD.m
• XAUEUR.m
• XAUEUR
• SILVER
• SILVER.m
• XAGEUR.m
• XAGEUR.ms
• SILVER.ms
• XPDUSD
• XPDUSD.m
• DJ30.x
• JP225.x
• #NG
• #CL
• SPX500.x
• NASDAQ100.x

Pricing Off:

• #SB.z
• SB.z
• #CC.z
• #CC.zs
• CC.z
• #KC.z
• KC.z
• #CT.z
• CT.z
• #OJ.z
• OJ.z
• #Wheat.z
• US Shares

The test of the 1.3238 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming that it was the right time to enter a long position on the pound. However, the expected rise in the pound never materialized.

The pound is entering the second half of the day without any domestic economic releases, so its performance will depend on US economic data and Federal Reserve officials' speeches. The first key release will be the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for October, which is expected to slow from 1.3% to 0.4% m/m, while the annual figure is forecast to rise from 6.3% to 6.6%. The core index, excluding food and energy, is expected to decline from 0.7% to 0.3% m/m and remain at 5.0% y/y.

It is worth noting that the recent backdrop has become less favorable for the dollar. US consumer price data have exceeded forecasts for the third consecutive month, while futures markets are pricing in 25-basis-point rate hikes in December, January, and March. If the PPI matches expectations or comes in below them, GBP/USD will receive only brief relief, as the slowdown following September's record reading is already priced into market expectations. If the figures exceed forecasts, particularly the core reading, demand for the dollar will increase, and the pound will resume its decline. Particular attention should be paid to the annual figure: even with a weak monthly increase, the expected 6.6% is above the previous 6.3% and could support the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buying the pound is planned today when the price reaches the entry point around 1.3238 (the thin green line on the chart), with a target of a rise to 1.3267 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3267, long positions will be closed, and short positions will be opened in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from this level). A rise in the pound today can be expected following weak US economic data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: The pound can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.3218 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3238 and 1.3267 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling the pound is planned today after the 1.3218 level is breached (the thin red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 1.3185, where short positions will be closed and long positions opened immediately in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from this level). Strong pressure on the pound will return if US economic data are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started falling from it.

Scenario #2: The pound can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.3238 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3218 and 1.3185 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take overbought and oversold conditions into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially when large position sizes are used without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders from the outset.

InstaForex warmly congratulates you on the occasion of Eid al-Adha!

May this blessed holiday bring peace, prosperity, harmony, and happiness to you and your loved ones. We sincerely wish you good health, success, well-being, and the fulfillment of your most cherished aspirations.

May the spirit of generosity, faith, and unity inspire new achievements and open the way to fresh opportunities and continued success.

Thank you for your trust and partnership.

Best wishes, InstaForex.

The test of the 1.1069 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line. This confirmed that the entry point for buying the euro was correct, but the pair failed to move higher.

The euro is entering the second half of the day with support from the upward revision to eurozone GDP, although the overall picture remains mixed. Third-quarter economic growth was revised to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, compared with the forecast of 0.4%. This is above the preliminary estimate released on October 30 and matches the second-quarter reading. Annual growth was confirmed at 1.3%. At the same time, employment increased by only 0.1%, against expectations of 0.2%, while the trade deficit reached 8.7 billion, compared with the forecast of 4.5 billion.

Inflation data from individual countries confirmed previous estimates. In France, consumer prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month, with annual inflation at 3.4%. In Spain, annual inflation reached 4.9%, while German wholesale prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month after rising by 1.9% in September. Against this background, eurozone inflation accelerated to 4.0% in October, and the ECB is expected to raise its deposit rate from 2.50% to 2.75% on December 17.

The US PPI remains the key indicator for the euro. In September, it rose by 1.3%, compared with the forecast of 0.5%, providing only temporary support for the dollar at the time. However, US consumer price data have now exceeded expectations for three consecutive months, while futures markets are pricing in three Fed rate hikes. Strong PPI data could put renewed pressure on EUR/USD, while weaker figures could give the euro an opportunity to advance toward the end of the week.

As for the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: The euro can be bought today if the price reaches the 1.1062 level (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1100. At 1.1100, the position will be closed, and a short position will also be opened in anticipation of a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro could advance today if US economic data are weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1048 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair could then rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1062 and 1.1100.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The euro can be sold after the price reaches the 1.1048 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1025, where the position will be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points from that level. Renewed pressure on the pair is possible if US economic data are stronger than expected. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1062 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair could then decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1048 and 1.1025.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold conditions.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should make market-entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially if risk management rules are not followed and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally flawed strategy for an intraday trader.

We are launching a special giveaway with a $4,000 prize fund. This is your chance to boost your family budget and fulfill those long-held plans! Whether it’s a dream vacation, home improvement, or a gift for your children, the prize is yours to claim.

To enter the draw, you only need to fulfill one simple condition: top up your trading account during the promotion period.

Invest in what matters most. We wish you and your family prosperity and success!

Register

The remaining figures were weaker. Employment increased by 0.1%, against a forecast of 0.2%, while the trade deficit widened to 8.7 billion, compared with the expected 4.5 billion. The deficit was initially estimated at 6.8 billion and subsequently revised to 7.8 billion. Thus, instead of narrowing, it continued to widen. This means that one positive report was offset by two negative indicators, and this combination is insufficient to generate a sustained upward movement in the euro.

The main event is still ahead, and it concerns the US dollar. The US Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures the prices businesses receive for their goods, will be released today. In September, the index increased by 1.3% month over month, its largest rise since March 2022, against a forecast of 0.5%. At the time, the dollar received only temporary support. This time, the monthly increase is expected to slow to 0.4%, while the annual figure is forecast at 6.6%, compared with 6.3% previously.

Particular attention is also being paid to the index excluding food and energy prices, commonly referred to as core PPI. It excludes the most volatile price components to provide a clearer picture of underlying price trends. In September, it increased by 0.7%, while the forecast for October stands at 0.3%. US consumer inflation has exceeded forecasts for three consecutive months, supporting the dollar after each release. If producer prices also come in above expectations, the dollar could strengthen further, and the upward revision to eurozone GDP may not prevent the euro from resuming its decline.

Following the release, Susan Collins and Michelle Bowman will speak, followed by Mary Daly. Collins previously described interest rates as moderately restrictive, meaning that they were slowing economic activity without applying excessive pressure. Until recently, Daly considered monetary policy to be in a good position, but yesterday she stated that further tightening would be necessary. This represents a notable shift in her rhetoric. Interest rate futures are pricing in 25-basis-point Fed rate hikes in December, January, and March.

Momentum

EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.1056, within a range between 1.1036 and 1.1069. A move beyond either boundary is considered a breakout, but a brief test of a level is not sufficient. The price needs to consolidate beyond it, meaning that several consecutive five-minute candles must close above or below the relevant level. Otherwise, traders risk encountering a false breakout, after which the price may return to the previous range.

The upper resistance level is at 1.1069. Consolidation above it would open the way toward 1.1102 and then 1.1133. The price has already risen to 1.1073, slightly above this level, but failed to hold there. This is an important sign of weak buying pressure. The first target at 1.1102 is close to the upper boundary of yesterday's rebound near 1.1100, where selling pressure often emerges. The upward revision of eurozone GDP to 0.6% is positive, but employment growth came in below expectations, while the trade deficit of 8.7 billion was almost twice the forecast of 4.5 billion. Therefore, this scenario appears unlikely.

The lower reference level is 1.1036. Consolidation below it would open the way toward 1.1004 and then 1.0973. This is considered the primary scenario. Over the past three days, the pair has moved from 1.1138 through 1.1098 to its current level near 1.1056, while yesterday's rebound failed to gain momentum. The US PPI will be released today, with a monthly increase of 0.4% expected following September's 1.3% rise. If the figure exceeds expectations and Daly reiterates yesterday's statement about the need for further monetary tightening, the dollar could receive another boost. Approximately 20 pips remain before the next key level, while the low near 1.1046 must be broken first. If the price moves below this level and consolidates there, the decline could accelerate. Entering a position on the first test of the level is not advisable.

Mean Reversion

Two levels are important here: 1.1071 and 1.1045. The upper reference level of 1.1071 is just two points above the breakout level for long positions at 1.1069, so particular caution is required. The same area serves both as a potential signal for further upside and as a reference point for a possible reversal to the downside. It is impossible to determine which scenario is developing based on the first test alone.

If the price consolidates above 1.1071, the upward breakout scenario is confirmed, and short positions should be avoided. However, if the price reaches 1.1071, fails to continue higher, and quickly returns below it, short positions could be considered toward 1.1045, with a stop-loss above 1.1077 and a small additional buffer. This scenario is more likely if the PPI comes in close to expectations and the market begins to retrace after its initial reaction. The distinction between these two scenarios may become clear within just a few minutes, so it is preferable to avoid trading the initial reaction around this level.

The lower reference level of 1.1045 is nine points above the breakout level for short positions at 1.1036 and almost coincides with the low of the past 24 hours near 1.1046. This indicates that buyers have already entered the market in this area. The strategy is as follows: the price declines toward 1.1045, fails to consolidate below it, and moves back above the level. In this case, long positions could be considered toward 1.1071, with a stop-loss below 1.1036 and a small additional buffer. Such a rebound is likely if Fed officials refrain from making further hawkish comments and the market begins taking profits toward the end of the week. However, if the price consolidates decisively below 1.1036, the rebound scenario is invalidated, and the downward breakout scenario takes precedence.

Please note that trading in metals, futures, and indices will be closed on April 3, 2026.

The main event is still ahead. The US Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures the prices businesses receive for their goods, will be released today. In September, the index increased by 1.3% month over month, its largest rise since March 2022, against a forecast of 0.5%. At the time, the dollar received only temporary support. This time, the market expects the monthly increase to slow to 0.4%. Particular attention is also being paid to the index excluding food and energy prices, known as core PPI, which excludes the most volatile price components. It increased by 0.7% in September, while the forecast for October stands at 0.3%.

Following the release, Susan Collins and Michelle Bowman will speak, followed by Mary Daly. Collins previously described interest rates as moderately restrictive, meaning that they were slowing economic activity without applying excessive pressure. Daly, however, stated yesterday that further monetary policy tightening would be necessary. This represents a notable shift toward a more hawkish tone, and similar comments today could increase pressure on the pound.

Momentum

GBP/USD is currently trading near 1.3231, within a range between 1.3214 and 1.3245. A move beyond either boundary is considered a breakout, but a brief test of a level is not sufficient. The price needs to consolidate beyond it, meaning that several consecutive five-minute candles must close above or below the relevant level. Otherwise, traders risk encountering a false breakout, after which the price may return to the previous range.

The upper boundary is at 1.3245. Consolidation above this level would open the way toward 1.3275 and then 1.3301. Overnight, the price reached only 1.3242, coming close to the resistance level but failing to break above it. This level has already demonstrated its significance as resistance. The first target at 1.3275 coincides with the upper boundary of yesterday's rebound near 1.3274, where selling pressure often emerges. There are no UK economic releases today, and yesterday's 0.7% quarterly GDP growth failed to support the pound. Therefore, there is little justification for such a strong upward move, making this scenario less likely.

The lower reference level is 1.3214. Consolidation below it would open the way toward 1.3183 and then 1.3161. This is considered the primary scenario. The fundamental backdrop remains favorable for the US dollar, Daly adopted a more hawkish tone yesterday, and the pound lacks domestic catalysts. Three days ago, the pair was trading near 1.3316. Yesterday's rebound reached only 1.3274, and the price is now near 1.3231. Approximately 17 points remain before the next key level, while the low near 1.3221 must be broken first. If the price moves below this level and consolidates there, the decline could accelerate. Entering a position on the first test of the level is not advisable.

Mean Reversion

Two levels are important here: 1.3245 and 1.3219. The upper reference level of 1.3245 coincides with the breakout level for long positions, so particular caution is required. The same price level serves both as a potential signal for further upside and as a reference point for a possible reversal to the downside. It is impossible to determine which scenario is developing based on the first test alone.

If the price consolidates above 1.3245, the upward breakout scenario is confirmed, and short positions should be avoided at this level. However, if the price reaches 1.3245, fails to continue higher, and quickly returns below it, short positions could be considered, with a stop-loss above 1.3251 and a small additional buffer. This scenario is more likely if the US PPI comes in close to expectations and the market retraces after its initial reaction. The distinction between these two scenarios may become clear within just a few minutes, so it is preferable to wait rather than trade the initial reaction around this level.

The lower reference level of 1.3219 is five points above the breakout level of 1.3214 and almost coincides with the low near 1.3221. This indicates that buyers have already entered the market in this area. The strategy is as follows: the price declines toward 1.3219, fails to consolidate below it, and moves back above the level. In this case, long positions could be considered, with a stop-loss below 1.3214 and an additional buffer. Such a rebound is more likely if Fed officials refrain from making further hawkish comments and the market begins taking profits toward the end of the week. However, if the price consolidates decisively below 1.3214, the rebound scenario is invalidated, and the downside breakout scenario takes precedence.

Happy holiday of spring and beauty!

InstaForex Team

NVIDIA's reaction to CEO resignation reports

Jensen Huang spent more than 30 years building an empire. He used NVIDIA's proceeds to finance activity across the chip buyer ecosystem. That circular financing reminded investors of the dot-com era and supplier funding dynamics. Such analogies fed bubble talk centered on NVIDIA. A collapse in the company's shares could have triggered a domino effect, and a CEO departure naturally sparked panic.

However, the chip maker does not stop operating. Its products will be bought regardless of the name on the CEO's door. For investors, the financials matter, and competitors such as Broadcom and Intel are ready to plug the gaps that appeared in the AI ecosystem.

Panic was unwarranted, and the crowd was first to recognize it. In the first 30 minutes of trading, retail investors bought a net $111 million of NVIDIA stock, a record for that time window. That's roughly 40 times typical net retail flows in normal trading. Over the past week, about 61% of all net retail purchases were tied to the largest chipmaker's shares.

Top-three S&P 500 issuers' market cap dynamics

NVIDIA has fallen by roughly 35% from its October record highs, and its market cap dropped below $4 trillion, ceding the top spot to Apple and ranking behind Microsoft.

The S&P 500 opened with a gap down after US President Donald Trump said the US does not need a deal with Iran. Oil rose on renewed expectations of a protracted Middle East conflict, triggering a rally in Treasury yields — bad news for debt-financed hyperscalers and the AI industry at large.

Still, NVIDIA's example shows no company is irreplaceable. New technologies are firmly embedded in the US equity market. Investors treat crises as buying opportunities and are quick to buy the dip. That is likely the sensible play: if the S&P 500 survived tariffs and the energy shock, why not continue rallying if the AI story holds up?

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 has formed a bullish engulfing bar. A break above its high near the pivot level at 7,655 would justify adding to long positions.

In celebration of International Women’s Day, we are launching a special giveaway — a chance to win as much as $8,000!

Entering is easy: simply fund your trading account and wait for the winners to be announced.

Welcome spring with luck, smiles, and bright moments!

Register

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The last completed upward wave failed to break above the previous peak, while the new downward wave broke below the previous low. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders expect at least one more round of monetary policy tightening by the end of the year and another one next year. This factor continues to support the US dollar, while US economic data only increases the likelihood of a hawkish policy scenario.

The fundamental backdrop on Thursday was very weak. The reasons behind the bears' latest attacks lie elsewhere. UK economic and industrial production data failed to provide support even for the British pound, let alone the euro. The US home sales report came in below traders' expectations and therefore could not support the US dollar. Initial jobless claims in the United States were higher than forecast. Thus, none of Thursday's three reports could even theoretically have supported the bears. The continued strength of the bears is likely attributable to the latest US inflation report, released on Tuesday, which delivered mixed results. Due to last year's government shutdown, October data was unavailable for comparison, so only the monthly figure was released on Tuesday. It came in 0.1 percentage points above market expectations, although it showed an overall slowdown compared with the previous month. Nevertheless, traders began anticipating even more hawkish action from the Fed, which triggered the breakout from the sideways trading range.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar once again and consolidated below the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1088. Thus, the decline could continue toward the next retracement level of 200.0% at 1.0940. Consolidation above 1.1088 would allow traders to anticipate a modest recovery toward 1.1221. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 1,263 Long positions and opened 12,634 Short positions. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 229,000, while the number of Short positions amounts to 387,000. The bears retain the advantage, and the euro continues to be sold more frequently than it is bought. This is attributable to the difficult geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Fed's readiness to continue tightening monetary policy. The market expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates for as long as necessary.

Overall, major market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro over the long term. Certainly, various global events, which have been abundant in recent years, affect investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Moreover, 2026 could set a record for the number of unforeseen events. Therefore, the euro is waiting for a more favorable opportunity.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• European Union – Third-quarter GDP growth (10:00 UTC).
• United States – Producer Price Index (13:30 UTC).

On November 13, the economic calendar contains two events, one of which is the US PPI report. Economic data could influence market sentiment on Friday during the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Long positions could be considered following an hourly close above the 1.1081–1.1086 level, with a target of 1.1220. Short positions could have been opened following an hourly close below the 1.1081–1.1086 level, with a target of 1.0939–1.0944. These positions can remain open.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.

Every account replenishment unlocks access to exclusive gifts.

Turn deposits into real rewards!

Top up your trading account and choose desired gifts from the premium catalogue, including the latest iPhones, MacBooks, gaming consoles, top-notch wireless headphones, travel vouchers, or cryptocurrency. Trade for a month, and the reward is yours, delivered to your door or paid in crypto. Repeat as many times as you like!

Double your benefits with referrals!

Invite traders — earn enhanced bonuses for both parties. Active trading and a broad partner network multiply your rewards.

Elite Traders Club

Regular depositing opens the door to the exclusive Traders Club with official status tiers from Bronze to VIP Pro. Receive exclusive gifts and premium rewards every six months and enjoy maximum privileges at each level.

Join Triple Three and start earning rewards!

Start receiving gifts

On Friday, GBP/USD halted its decline at 1.3220, trading near its lowest levels in four weeks amid continued US dollar strength.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US dollar against a basket of major global currencies, remains near its April 2025 highs. This movement is supported by growing expectations of monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) through interest rate hikes, as well as persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. The release of US consumer inflation data for October, which exceeded forecasts, prompted more hawkish rhetoric from several Fed officials, strengthening market expectations of further monetary tightening. Moreover, market participants have begun pricing in the possibility of a substantial Fed rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) in December. Against this backdrop, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has once again moved above the 5% mark.

Fed official Mary Daly adopted a noticeably more hawkish stance. According to the FXS Speechtracker tool, her rhetoric received a score of 8.3 out of 10, significantly above the historical average of 6.5. This highlights the regulator's serious concerns about the persistence of inflation, despite positive expectations regarding productivity growth driven by technological progress. In particular, addressing artificial intelligence (AI), Daly noted that although the current technology boom and rapid development of the AI sector are not major inflationary factors and have so far had a limited impact on the labor market, the potential inflationary pressure generated by AI and the risk of stronger inflationary trends in the future prevent the Fed from lowering its guard. Daly's emphasis on persistent inflation in the services sector, her willingness to support a rate hike in September, and her inclination toward further monetary tightening confirm the Fed's commitment to reducing inflation as its primary objective, even though future productivity growth could eventually contribute to slower inflation.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index increased by 1.01 points to 147.55. The indicator remains in hawkish territory, reflecting a stronger bias toward monetary policy tightening, as also demonstrated by recent statements from Fed officials. This trend, combined with the high FXS Speechtracker reading, suggests that markets are likely to continue pricing in factors supporting US dollar strength, as tighter financial conditions are consistent with the Fed's current objectives.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump stated in a post on the Truth Social platform that the United States does not need to reach an agreement with Iran, emphasizing that the opportunity to do so had long passed. In addition, continued attacks on Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure and commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz are increasing the geopolitical risk premium. This provides further support for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset and puts additional pressure on GBP/USD.

Nevertheless, expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by another 25 basis points at its next meeting on December 17 could provide some support for the British pound.

At the same time, the lack of strong buying demand calls for caution when opening positions in anticipation of a recovery.

From a technical perspective, oscillators are in negative territory, confirming the bears' advantage. The pair is trading below all major moving averages, further reinforcing the negative market sentiment. Therefore, a sustained recovery appears unlikely without a clear supporting catalyst.

The table below shows the percentage change in the US dollar against the listed major currencies over the current week. The US dollar recorded its largest gain against the Swiss franc.

Multiply your capital instantly

Open an X‑account and receive a guaranteed minimum 10x increase to your deposit. The progressive bonus scale works automatically: the larger the top‑up, the higher the multiplier.

Unlimited growth potential

Create as many X‑accounts as you want — every new top‑up unlocks access to the bonus. Trade on Insta.Standard terms with 1:30 leverage, a minimum deposit of $10, and transparent fees.

Maximum convenience and security

Funds are credited instantly. Manage accounts via a convenient Client Area and a mobile app with 4,000,000+ downloads. Seventeen years in the market, and fully automated calculations ensure the reliability of every operation.

Open an X‑account and multiply your deposit today!

Get bonus

The money flow is simpler than it sounds. The U.S. Treasury has an Exchange Stabilization Fund, and part of its holdings are in foreign currencies, including euros. At the Treasury's instruction, the New York Fed sold those euros in the spot market (immediately at the prevailing rate) and received yen in exchange. That created additional demand for the Japanese currency. The dollar enters this chain as the unit of account — amounts are quoted in dollars — so £79.4 billion converts to about $497 million, corresponding to an exchange rate near £159.8 per dollar. The report says the operation's stated goal was to counter disorderly yen moves the Treasury had observed.

Why does selling euros for yen help versus the dollar? The EUR/USD, JPY/EUR and USD/JPY rates are linked like the sides of a triangle. When a large buyer acquires yen with euros, the market immediately recalculates the yen-dollar pair. So euro-to-yen support reverberates in USD/JPY even though the U.S. Treasury did not sell dollars in the transaction.

In scale, the U.S. contribution looks modest. Japan spent a record $97.5 billion on intervention through August 26, and $497 million is about 0.5% of that sum — roughly 200 times smaller than Japan's outlay. Bessent had previously called U.S. spending nominal, and the report confirms that. The significance of the U.S. action was symbolic: for the first time in nearly three decades Tokyo and Washington acted together in the FX market.

At the time, the yen fell to £163.9 per dollar — the weakest since the 1980s. Bessent explained U.S. participation by noting Japan's huge holdings of U.S. Treasuries, and that a mass sale of those securities to buy yen could add upward pressure on U.S. borrowing costs. The concern was real: January–August Japanese purchases of Treasuries totaled just $389 million, 99% less than a year earlier, and Tokyo reportedly sold some securities to support the yen. For Washington, a small intervention was a relatively cheap way to prevent a broader sell-off.

The picture has now reverted. Over two days, the yen fell from about 158 to nearly 160; on Thursday, USD/JPY touched 159.94, and this morning the yen recovered only a little to 159.63. Tokyo reacted immediately. "It's too early to forget what happened this summer," said Mimura, the top currency-policy official at Japan's Finance Ministry. He called recent moves too rapid but did not specify intervention levels. Since the summer, Bessent and Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama have repeated that they stand ready to intervene again.

The reason for yen weakness remains the same: the rate gap. The Fed's target range is 3.75–4.00%, and futures price 25-bp hikes in December, January and March. The BOJ's policy rate is 1.25%, and even the market's roughly 87% chance of a December hike does not close the gap — because after three Fed steps the spread would widen further. The stronger the U.S. data — and core CPI has beaten forecasts for the third month in a row — the greater the pressure on the yen and the higher the risk of fresh intervention.

One important difference from the summer: Tokyo and Washington recently confirmed that Japan can obtain dollar liquidity via the Fed's FIMA Repo facility without selling Treasuries. In my view, this weakens Washington's principal objection to Japan selling U.S. bonds and makes a new intervention technically easier. The U.S. is resisting other countries selling Treasuries because yields are already high. If Japan runs out of other options to stabilize its currency, it will likely have to dip into its holdings of U.S. bonds.

I believe that as long as the Fed keeps tightening and U.S. data beat forecasts, USD/JPY will remain around 160, and today's U.S. PPI could be another test of that level. I think USD/JPY is unlikely to stay above 160 without new intervention, and I would not rule out Tokyo returning to the market and Washington adding a symbolic contribution. But only a December BOJ rate hike is likely to reverse the yen sustainably.

Thirteen demanding stages tested the team's endurance, skill, and determination. From a dramatic victory on Stage 1 to recovering from a collision with Martin Macík on Stage 8, the team demonstrated exceptional performance and unwavering resilience.

Pavel Vršecký shared his thoughts: "Dakar 2026 was one of our toughest challenges. We had victories, technical difficulties, and even that dramatic moment on Stage 8 when we flipped in the dunes. But we never gave up. The entire team worked as one unit, and our second place finish is the result of our collective effort and belief in each other."

Second place confirms Aleš Loprais's status as one of the world's best Dakar Rally drivers. Pavel Vršecký demonstrated masterful navigation skills in the harshest desert conditions. Darek Rodewald, an experienced mechanic and three-time Dakar winner, proved once again that his expertise is invaluable – this marks his eighth podium finish.

The path to the finish was challenging. On Stage 10, the team climbed to second place overall, but technical issues on Stage 12 tested their will to win. When Red Dragon flipped in the dunes, rival competitors helped them continue the race. This moment could have broken a weaker team, but not the InstaForex Loprais Team.

"We are proud to support such exceptional athletes as the Loprais Team," "Our investment in sports and this team demonstrates that strategic partnership, belief in shared goals, and support for talented individuals lead to remarkable results. Second place at Dakar 2026 is more than a medal – it's a symbol of our shared vision for excellence."

Notably, the team repeated their 2024 success, showcasing stability and professionalism in extreme conditions. The legendary Red Dragon truck proved its reliability and speed across thirteen grueling stages.

Stay tuned for updates and celebrate every success with us and the InstaForex Loprais Team! We look forward to seeing you at Dakar 2027, where Red Dragon will return to continue its pursuit of greatness.

InstaForex – proud sponsors of the InstaForex Loprais Team De Rooy FPT. Supporting champions. Supporting the future.

Recent days have been marked by headline events that hit both traditional financial markets and leading tech companies. The primary catalyst for macroeconomic shifts was an unexpected US inflation print.

The release pushed the Fed toward a more hawkish stance and triggered a rapid rally in the dollar. As a result, investors fled risk assets, driving down gold and cryptocurrency prices and forcing portfolio readjustments.

At the same time, Silicon Valley faces its own crisis. Against the backdrop of political change in Washington, a coalition of public interest groups has filed a lawsuit against AI developers, effectively seeking to slow the tech race.

In this note, we analyze how the price shock is reshuffling global market dynamics and why an era of unfettered AI development may now confront its most serious challenge.

Dollar storms to highs, yen stands still

On Friday, November 13, Asia's FX market was dominated by a dollar rally. The greenback is holding near 19-month highs and looks set to close another week with solid gains. The main driver is investors' increasingly hawkish read of Fed policy — many now see a greater chance the Fed will move more aggressively on interest rates as soon as next month.

Against that backdrop, the Japanese yen came under renewed pressure, approaching the psychological 160 per dollar mark, and talk of possible Tokyo intervention resurfaced. The US dollar index remains at levels last seen in April 2025.

Two-year Treasury yields staged a sharp move, up 34 basis points over two sessions, marking the strongest two-day jump in about three and a half years. Fuel for the repricing also came from US President Donald Trump's comments that a deal with Iran is not necessary.

The wave of repricing accelerated after the inflation release: October CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month versus a 0.3% consensus. Fed officials signaled that price pressure remains persistent, and some even floated a 50-bp option if inflation fails to cool.

Notably, Fed governor Christopher Waller said he would consider a more forceful move if core CPI prints at 0.3% or higher.

Per the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a 50-bp hike in December are now about 14.5%, a scenario the market largely dismissed a week ago. Major brokerages are revising forecasts, and some now expect an additional hike in early 2027.

All instruments mentioned in this article are available for trading on the InstaForex platform. Open an InstaForex account and download the mobile app for convenient access to global market moves.

Golden storm: drivers behind sell-off

On Thursday, November 12, the precious metals market took a heavy blow: gold prices plunged to their lowest level in 13 months.

A toxic mix of a strengthening dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and surging oil prices forced investors to scramble and revise strategies.

According to Reuters and CNBC, spot gold fell by nearly 3%, briefly breaking the psychological $3,900/oz mark, a depth of decline not seen since October 2025. Thursday's session marked the third consecutive day of sharp losses.

The current sell-off highlights how vulnerable the premier safe-haven has become in the face of a decisive hawkish tilt at the Federal Reserve. As recently as January, gold was making record highs. Today, the metal's year-on-year performance has swung to roughly –5%.

The trigger for the drop was fresh inflation data. October US CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, beating analyst expectations. Hawkish comments from Fed officials poured fuel on the fire. Fed Governor Christopher Waller explicitly hinted that if core inflation remains elevated, the central bank could take a radical step, a 50-bp rate hike.

He was backed by colleagues. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said inflationary pressures are continuing to build, and New York Fed President John Williams confirmed a high likelihood of further tightening.

The market reaction was swift. FedWatch now pegs the odds of a 25-bp rate hike in December at an impressive 89%, while the 50-bp scenario is estimated at around 11% (a week ago, that outcome was barely considered).

Against this backdrop, the US dollar index surged to 19-month highs. The logic is straightforward: as interest rates rise, a non-yielding asset like gold quickly loses appeal.

Crypto storm: Bitcoin's slide and road ahead

The world's leading cryptocurrency is going through a rough patch. Bitcoin slipped below the psychological $74,000 level, shedding the momentum it gained around the US midterms.

Pressure on the market is mounting fast: fresh inflation data beat economists' forecasts, effectively freeing the Fed to pursue another interest rate hike in December.

The situation is worsened by large outflows from crypto funds, regulatory uncertainty, and the fallout from the record Binance hack. As a result, Bitcoin hit a three-month low, and annual inflows to US crypto funds have effectively dried up.

And it started so optimistically. On the initial election results, BTC briefly climbed above $80,000, but the rally quickly ran out of steam.

A cold shower for investors was the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report on November 10: October CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month versus a 0.3% consensus.

The market reaction was immediate. CME Group's FedWatch tool pushed the odds of a Fed rate hike at the December 8–9 meeting to a hefty 88.8%.

A rebound attempt on Thursday failed to stick. Over the week, Bitcoin fell by 8.5%, and Ethereum plunged by nearly 15%. CoinSwitch analysts note that an overheating labor market and high inflation leave the regulator little choice.

Altcoins suffered as well: Solana and XRP followed the leader down. On November 9, forced liquidations in crypto futures wiped out roughly $1.1 billion of traders' capital in a single day.

AI on trial: US nonprofits sue tech giants to halt AI development

A high-profile lawsuit has been filed with the California Supreme Court in San Francisco that could shake up the entire IT industry. A coalition of nonprofit organizations has openly come out against the key players in the artificial intelligence market – Anthropic, Google, Meta, OpenAI, and SpaceXSI (formerly known as xAI).

The plaintiffs' demand is radical: completely ban these companies from developing and deploying new AI models. According to the Associated Press, which first drew attention to the case, the main reason is the developers' own inability to guarantee that their creations can be prevented from causing "catastrophic" harm.

The timing of the legal offensive is no accident: the lawsuit was filed just days after the US midterm elections, as a result of which Democrats regained control of Congress, making strict AI regulation one of their key themes.

According to AP estimates, this could become a turning point for an industry that has long developed with virtually no strict federal oversight, and now risks facing serious liability.

The bold coalition includes the Irreplaceable Education Fund, Public Citizen, Heat Initiative, and Alliance for Secure AI. The activists accuse the IT giants of violating California's unfair competition law.

In their view, the rapid and uncontrolled growth of AI not only threatens public safety but also creates direct interference with the operation of computer systems. Moreover, organizations have had to urgently redirect their resources and abandon planned projects just to protect society from the risks emanating from new hyperactive models.

The plaintiffs' position sounds uncompromising: "No other industry is allowed to treat its own development of unsafe products — much less ones that could kill us all — as inevitable. Plaintiffs bring this suit to stop Defendants from continuing their unlawful path to disaster."

As evidence, the plaintiffs cite specific documented cyberattacks and malicious precedents, as well as numerous public statements by the leadership of the tech companies themselves, who have acknowledged that their developments are potentially capable of destroying humanity.

The creators warn that the uncontrolled race to create full-fledged artificial general intelligence (AGI), capable of thinking and learning on par with humans, risks leading to a complete and irreversible loss of control over algorithms. The renamed SpaceXSI and the other defendants in the case are currently refraining from official comment.

Events surrounding leading technology corporations directly influence financial market dynamics. All the trading instruments and shares of major IT giants discussed are available for trading on the InstaForex platform.

To seize the opportunity to profit from highly volatile stocks, open a trading account with InstaForex and download the company's convenient mobile app.

Entering is simple: just deposit any amount into your trading account during the promotion period to automatically become a participant in the drawing.

Make February 14th the start of your next financial milestone. Wishing you good luck and nothing but great news!

Register

The market outlook has turned bearish. The last completed upward wave failed to break above the previous peak, while the new downward wave easily broke below the previous low. Thus, the bears have temporarily taken control of the market. The market has already priced in further FOMC monetary policy tightening in the near term, while the Bank of England is only beginning to tighten its policy. The pound is expected to resume its upward movement once the corrective pullback is complete.

The fundamental backdrop on Thursday offered the bulls an opportunity to launch a counterattack, but they failed to take advantage of it. UK GDP reports showed respectable figures, although forecasts were relatively high this time. The annual figure was particularly strong, reaching +1.9%. Industrial production also performed well, rising by 0.3% instead of declining by 0.3%. However, the bulls ignored all this data, as US inflation reports are currently more important to the market. Another such report is due today: the US Producer Price Index (PPI). If it also comes in at least 0.1 percentage points above traders' expectations, the bears could continue their attacks. The October PPI is expected to reach 0.4%, considerably lower than the previous month's figure of 1.3%. However, the annual rate could rise from 6.3% to 6.6%, which can hardly be considered a positive development. Therefore, any increase in PPI could potentially support further US dollar appreciation.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD declined to the 23.6% retracement level at 1.3265 and consolidated below it. Thus, the decline could continue toward the 0.0% retracement level at 1.3137. A bullish divergence is developing on the CCI indicator, which could bring the pair's decline to a halt. However, this divergence has been developing for several days, while the bears continue to demonstrate their strength.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 7,135, while the number of Short positions decreased by 12,458. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 64,000 versus 124,000. The bears retain a substantial advantage, which has been widening over time. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestionable, but it is now being called into question because the fundamental backdrop has changed in recent months.

The bearish trend in the pound is still not considered convincing. However, in the near term, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has shifted its focus toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States remain extremely difficult. Whether Washington and Tehran will ultimately reach an agreement remains an open question. Any deterioration in the geopolitical situation could once again increase demand for the US dollar.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – Producer Price Index (13:30 UTC).

On November 13, the economic calendar contains just one event, which could easily trigger another round of bearish activity. Economic data could influence market sentiment on Friday during the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Short positions could have been opened following a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3469 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3404 and 1.3342. Both targets were reached. New short positions could be considered following a close below 1.3342, with a target of 1.3263. This target was also reached. Yesterday, short positions in the pound could have been opened following a close below 1.3263, with a target of 1.3177. These positions can remain open today. Long positions could be considered following a rebound from the 1.3136–1.3177 level, with a target of 1.3263.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3674 to 1.3136 on the hourly chart and from 1.3674 to 1.3137 on the 4-hour chart.

Due to sustained high market volatility, we are implementing the following modifications to ensure a stable trading environment and to support responsible risk management:

1. Adjustment of Swap Points

During periods of rapid price fluctuations, the costs associated with maintaining open positions overnight (swaps) may change. These adjustments result from heightened liquidity risks and higher financing costs currently present in global markets.

2. Revision of Leverage Limits

To protect our clients' capital from the effects of increased market volatility, we are reducing the maximum leverage for selected metals.

Why this is important: Lower leverage increases the margin required to maintain a position, serving as a safety buffer in the event of price gaps.

Required Action: Please review your open positions and ensure your account balance is sufficient to cover the updated margin requirements.

Note: The above changes are precautionary measures aimed at protecting your capital during unpredictable market cycles. We encourage you to monitor your account status closely and utilize risk management tools, such as Stop-Loss orders.

We appreciate your understanding and continued cooperation.

What did the UK data show? GDP for September rose 0.2% (vs. 0.0% expected and 0.0% previously), and GDP for Q3 increased 0.7% after 0.5% in Q2, in line with forecasts. On a year-on-year basis, economic growth accelerated to 1.9% from 1.4%. Industrial production rose 0.3% (consensus -0.3%), and manufacturing added 0.7% (expected -0.5%). The weak spot remains the trade balance: the deficit widened to £22.3bn versus an expected £19.2bn. The picture points to a reasonably solid UK recovery after a slow start to the year, and a week ago this set of figures would have supported the pound. I think it failed to do so today simply because the external backdrop outweighed domestic data.

That backdrop was created by the US side. Weekly initial jobless claims rose to 200k (vs. 195k expected), with last week's figure revised to 191k from 189k — the prior low since 1969. Continuing claims fell to 1,697k (expected 1,720k). The labor market remains tight, which helped the dollar hold its ground. In my view, Fed speakers had an even bigger impact on dollar buying than the data itself.

The dynamic matters. Mary Daly recently thought policy was well placed, yet she now says further tightening will be required because price pressures have spread beyond tariff? and energy?related sectors and firms are increasingly passing costs on to consumers. John Williams urged patience in September; in October, he allowed for one hike this year, but now calls inflation too high even on recent readings and speaks of the need for action. Beth Hammack previously favored a restrictive stance and voted to raise rates; Austan Goolsbee called the inflation report worrying and warned of overheated demand. Waller has also joined them in entertaining a 50?bp move. The tone has shifted among officials who were more cautious only recently, and that is the week's main development.

The implication is clear: the market now prices three 25?bp hikes — one in December and two more at meetings next year (priced as January and March in futures). Recall the policy rate is currently 3.75–4.00%, and the probability of a December move was already estimated at 96.3% before the CPI release. After a CPI that surprised on the upside for the third month running, a 25?bp hike in December can be considered fully priced. Notably, Fed Chair Waller has taken a defensive posture, makes few public appearances and offers no projections or rate guidance. The market therefore focuses on statements from other officials, and even non?voting FOMC members are now setting the tone.

As for today's calendar, the revised euro?area Q3 GDP report in the first half of the day will attract attention. Confirmation of 0.4% growth (as in the flash estimate) is expected after 0.6% in Q2, i.e., a slowdown is evident, with a year?on?year rate of about 1.3%. Employment is forecast to rise 0.2% q/q. For the euro, this is more background than a driver: the ECB deposit rate is 2.50%, a lift to 2.75% is expected on December 17, and preliminary October inflation is seen at 4.0% vs. 3.8% previously. A result in line with expectations changes little; a downward revision would bolster the argument that growth is lagging inflation and remove support for the euro. Any upside surprise would likely help only briefly.

The main event today is US PPI. October is forecast at 0.4% m/m and 6.6% y/y after 1.3% and 6.3% in September, with core PPI seen at 0.3% m/m after 0.7% and 5.0% y/y. September's surge — the largest since March 2022 — was almost entirely driven by fuel, with gasoline up 20.3%. That earlier spike gave only temporary dollar support and did not translate into gains versus the euro and pound. Now it's different: the market has already priced in a hawkish scenario after CPI, and if PPI again beats forecasts, the dollar will strengthen further, and EUR/GBP will continue to fall. Michelle Bowman and Susan Collins will speak later; I don't expect anything new — the tone has been consistently hawkish from Fed speakers all week.

Technical picture for EUR/USD (hourly)

For long positions, consider false?break levels at 1.1036 and 1.1004 — trading here is counter?trend, with a more distant target at 1.0973 where I'd look to buy a bounce for 25–30 pips. For short positions, bears may try to defend 1.1069 on a positive European print; a false break there would indicate sellers targeting 1.1036. If no sellers appear at 1.1069, a late?week correction could reach 1.1102. Shorts only on false breaks; I'd look to sell rallies from 1.1133 for 25–30 pips.

GBP/USD is following a similar pattern. After a fresh weekly low, buyers will likely try to show up at 1.3214; if not, I'd postpone buys until 1.3183 on a false break counter?trend, targeting 1.3161 for 20–25 pips. On the sell side, I'd avoid rushing near current lows — shorts should be considered only on a false break of 1.3245 or 1.3275, and I'd sell rallies from 1.3301 for 20–25 pips.

Bottom line: the dollar has the upper hand into the weekend. Three priced?in Fed hikes and the hawkish tone of officials outweigh UK data and a slowing yet still?growing eurozone. I expect a hot PPI to give markets another reason to sell EUR and GBP, with any corrective rally mainly useful for initiating shorts. A weak PPI could let buyers recoup some losses, but I don't expect a lasting reversal without a softer Fed tone.

Another year is coming to an end, leaving us with valuable baggage: experience, confidence, new knowledge, and moments to be proud of. The year 2025 has been diverse — sometimes generous with discoveries and sometimes demanding in efforts, but it has undoubtedly marked an important step forward for each of us.

We are sincerely grateful to you for being by our side throughout this year, for trusting us, and for choosing us as your partner in the world of financial solutions.

For your confidence, we developed our service, expanded capabilities, and made the platform more convenient and reliable. We will continue to do so in the new year — with even greater inspiration.

The year 2026 is already at the doorstep, filled with blank pages — opportunities just waiting for their time. May this year become a time for bold goals, confident decisions, and successful steps that lead you to your dreams. May your work bring you joy, your trades result in profits, and each day fill you with happiness and a sense of progress.

We wholeheartedly wish you health, inner peace, energy, and the support of loved ones. May the New Year bring warmth, a festive atmosphere, and countless happy moments that you will cherish.

Happy New Year 2026!

With best wishes, InstaForex

Nvidia remains the top story. On Thursday, the stock fell more than 14%, but buyers trimmed losses to 4.3% by the close. The board has removed Huang as CEO; interim leadership will be assumed by CFO Colette Kress, and Huang will no longer be affiliated with the firm. For comparison, on November 9, the board only opened an investigation, and by the evening of November 11, shares had dropped nearly 10% on reports about potential successors. Now the resignation is confirmed, so attention turns to the Q3 report due next Tuesday. The tech sector already lost nearly 6.4% on the Nasdaq 100 a week earlier amid fears of tougher AI oversight, and yesterday only partially recovered.

The Fed interest rates are adding pressure. Two-year Treasuries, which are sensitive to Fed policy, rose 14 basis points on Thursday; oil extended a sell-off that began after the CPI release. Consumer prices in October rose 0.4% month?on?month versus a 0.3% forecast, and core CPI rose 0.3% versus an expected 0.2% — the third month in a row above forecasts. John Williams said on Thursday that inflation remains high and policymakers will need to act further. Markets now price 25-bp hikes in December, January and March.

The US PPI due later today will likely determine whether pressure on equities continues. The forecast for October is 0.4% m/m after 1.3% in September and 6.6% y/y after 6.3%; core PPI (ex food and energy) is expected at 0.3% m/m after 0.7%. Many experts believe a December hike is already priced in, so only a materially weaker print could change that; another hot number would push yields higher and add more pressure on stocks. Aside from Nvidia's report on Tuesday, markets are also watching the Anthropic IPO — with demand reportedly many times the supply — and CoreWeave's plan to raise at least $4 billion in investment-grade debt.

The Middle East remains a risk source. Yesterday, Trump said the US could manage without a deal with Iran, dampening hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the nine-month conflict. In commodities, Brent trades around $95.70/bbl, holding a 3.3% Thursday move. Gold bounced after three sessions of declines. Bitcoin fell below $68,000 for the first time since August as inflation and higher rates weigh on crypto.

All told, stocks remain under pressure heading into the weekend. I expect Nasdaq-100 futures to underperform the S&P 500 until Nvidia's report on Tuesday, and a hot PPI will deepen the slide. Only a materially weaker print would relieve pressure, and I see no reason to expect that yet.

Technical view on the S&P 500

Buyers' main task today is to overcome immediate resistance at $7,607. That would demonstrate strength and open the way to a push toward $7,633. Another priority for bulls is to hold above $7,656 to reinforce their position. On the downside, amid falling risk appetite, buyers must defend around $7,574. A break there would quickly push the instrument back to $7,544 and open the path to $7,518.

On this wonderful winter day, when the world seems to pause in anticipation of a miracle, we sincerely wish you true festive warmth. May your home be filled with comfort, harmony, and joy, and may every moment glow with the light that makes Christmas truly special.

May the scent of pine and the sparkle of lights bring long-awaited reunions, heartfelt conversations, and the feeling that the best is yet to come. We hope you find a peaceful escape from the daily hustle and bustle, and that your heart is filled with peace and inspiration.

We wish you confidence to pursue your goals, exciting achievements, and new horizons. Thank you for being part of our big InstaForex family — your support and trust make us stronger every day.

Merry Christmas!

Best wishes, InstaForex.

Bitcoin and Ethereum continue their downward move, constantly fed by one discouraging piece of news after another. I remind you that recent developments for the crypto world have been overwhelmingly negative. Central banks (notably the Federal Reserve) keep tightening monetary policy; the Clarity Act remains just a bill; Democrats won control of Congress, further reducing the likelihood that the Clarity Act will pass. Historically, Bitcoin tends to fall after midterm elections (which we are seeing now), and two weeks ago, the list of negatives grew with the hack of the world's largest crypto exchange, Binance. That was followed by a crash in the US stock market and a sell?off in tech shares, which many experts link closely to Bitcoin's price. This week, US inflation accelerated more than expected, further boosting the market's hawkish Fed bets. The cherry on top was the resignation of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang — which triggered mass capital outflows from tech stocks. The equity sell-off in turn pulled down the crypto market. So, the fundamental case for Bitcoin's rise remains, to say the least, shaky.

As noted, Jensen Huang stepped down as Nvidia CEO this week. The company said the change of the top executive will not disrupt operations and that commitments to investors and product-development plans will be met. Still, investors are selling the stock because they dislike uncertainty. A new head of one of the world's largest companies could change strategic direction. How Nvidia will operate and evolve now is unclear, so investors prefer to move capital from a troubled Nvidia into other stocks and instruments. Experts believe that the departure of not only the CEO but also a founder will leave a mark on long-term strategy execution and negatively affect investment in the company and the AI sector.

In addition, MSCI announced that it removed Strategy's shares from the MSCI USA and MSCI Japan Small Cap indices. The decision followed a reassessment of index-inclusion criteria. In recent years, Strategy has transformed from a major software developer into a treasury-like company that "puts all its eggs in one basket." Many investors and analysts are now worried about its future.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin tried to start a new uptrend, but the fundamental backdrop, spot demand and recent news are too negative to expect its continuation. In the near term, on the daily timeframe, Bitcoin may remain in decline: the price has already reacted to three bearish FVGs and formed a bearish order block. Bitcoin remains inside a sideways channel, generated a reversal signal near its upper boundary and has worked through the $70,800 level. Short positions remain more relevant than longs for now, with targets at $60,200 and $57,500. The latest bearish FVG on the daily chart produced a fresh sell signal. On the 4-hour timeframe, there is another bearish FVG, a reaction to which could give traders an opportunity to open new short positions.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

The daily technical picture for Ethereum has changed. Ethereum made a substantial upward run in June–September 2026 that could mark the start of a new long-term trend. However, there is no confidence that Bitcoin's bearish trend has ended. If Bitcoin remains in a downtrend or even flat, Ethereum's rally should not be expected. Bitcoin's daily chart shows enough sell signals and bearish patterns to continue downward, so we also expect Ethereum to fall. Targets are around $1,850 and $1,391. On the 4-hour timeframe, there is a new bearish FVG that serves as a POI for short positions.

Comments on the charts

CHOCH is a change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity means traders' Stop-Losses that market makers use to build their positions. FVG stands for a Fair Value Gap (an area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG is an Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB means an Order Block. A candle on which a market maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on December 24, 2025 - January 2, 2026

December 24, 2025

Early Close at 21:00:

• Forex

Early Close at 20:45:

Spot metals:

• GOLD
• SILVER

Futures Metals:

• #PLF
• #PAF
• #HG
• #GC
• #SI

Futures Energy:

• #XBZ
• #QM
• #CL
• #QG
• #NG
• #XRB
• #HO

Early Close at 20:00:

• CFD US Stocks

Early Close at 20:05:

Futures Agro:

• #ZW
• #ZS
• #ZL
• #ZM
• #ZC

Futures Goods:

• #LBS
• #JO
• #CT
• #CC
• #KC
• #SB

Early Close at 20:15:

Futures Agro:

• #HE
• #GF
• #LE

Indices:

#USDX - Early Close at 20:45.

#SPX - Early Close at 20:15.

#INDU - Early Close at 20:15.

#NDX - Early Close at 20:15.

#FTSE - Early Close at 14:50.

#N225 - Early Close at 20:15.

#HSI - Early Close at 06:00.

#DAX - Closed full day.

#SMI - Closed full day.

#SPAIN35 - Early Close at 15:00.

#AEX25 - Early Close at 15:00.

#ITALY40 - Closed full day.

#STOXX50 - Closed full day.

#ASX200 - Early Close at 05:30.

#FRANCE40 - Early Close at 15:00.

December 24, 2025 and January 1, 2026

Closed full day:

• Forex

Spot metals:

• GOLD
• SILVER
• CFD US Stocks

Futures Metals:

• #PLF
• #PAF
• #HG
• #GC
• #SI

Futures Energy:

• #XBZ
• #QM
• #CL
• #QG
• #NG
• #XRB
• #HO

Futures Agro:

• #ZW
• #ZS
• #ZL
• #ZM
• #ZC
• #HE
• #GF
• #LE

Futures Goods:

• #LBS
• #JO
• #CT
• #CC
• #KC
• #SB

Indices:

• #USDX
• #SPX
• #INDU
• #NDX
• #FTSE
• #N225
• #HSI
• #DAX
• #SMI
• #SPAIN35
• #AEX25
• #ITALY40
• #STOXX50
• #ASX200
• #FRANCE40

December 26, 2025

Closed full day:

Indices:

• #HSI
• #DAX
• #SMI
• #SPAIN35
• #AEX25
• #ITALY40
• #STOXX50
• #ASX200
• #FRANCE40

December 31, 2025

Closed full day:

Indices:

• #DAX
• #SMI
• #ITALY40
• #STOXX50

Early Close at 21:00:

• Forex
• CFD US Stocks

Spot metals:

• GOLD
• SILVER

Futures Metals:

• #PLF
• #PAF
• #HG
• #GC
• #SI

Futures Energy:

• #XBZ
• #QM
• #CL
• #QG
• #NG
• #XRB
• #HO

Futures Agro:

• #ZW
• #ZS
• #ZL
• #ZM
• #ZC
• #HE
• #GF
• #LE

Futures Goods:

• #LBS
• #CT

Indices:

#USDX - Early Close at 21:00.

#SPX - Early Close at 21:00.

#INDU - Early Close at 21:00.

#NDX - Early Close at 21:00.

#FTSE - Early Close at 14:50.

#N225 - Early Close at 21:00.

#HSI - Early Close at 06:00.

#DAX - Closed full day.

#SMI - Closed full day.

#SPAIN35 - Early Close at 15:00.

#AEX25 - Early Close at 15:00.

#ITALY40 - Closed full day.

#STOXX50 - Closed full day.

#ASX200 - Early Close at 05:30.

#FRANCE40 - Early Close at 15:00.

January 1, 2026

Opening at 16:30:

Futures Agro:

• #ZW
• #ZS
• #ZL
• #ZM
• #ZC
• #HE
• #GF
• #LE

Closed full day:

Indices:

• #SMI
• #ITALY40

Trading hours for other financial instruments remain unchanged. Please adjust your trading decisions for this information.

The company reserves the right to introduce other unspecified restrictions without prior notice.

Best regards,

InstaForex team

What's worrying is that the $70,000 support many called the three-month floor has been breached, and the 21-week and 200-day averages lost that week near $73,200 are now acting as resistance. Recall Tom Lee's November 3 comment, "we are at the bottom," came when Bitcoin was around $80,500; since then BTC has lost roughly 18%, and the breakeven cost for short-term holders at $75,691 is now about 9% above the market.

Pressure on the market comes from several directions. High oil prices and elevated inflation have strengthened expectations of further Federal Reserve hikes. After October's US CPI printed 0.4% m/m vs. 0.3% forecast (core 0.3% vs. 0.2%), the market has fully priced in a 25-bp move in December, and futures imply further 25-bp steps in January and March. Yesterday, Fed officials, including Daly, said further tightening will be required, and Williams called inflation too high even in the latest data.

A second factor is political. Democrats are set to retake both chambers of the US Congress next year, raising expectations of closer regulation of the industry. The third factor is institutional buyers stepping back for a second week. From October 30 to November 11, net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $2.5 billion. Add a $14.2 billion decline in stablecoin supply over 30 days, and even less fresh capital is available to buy rebounds.

I believe that as long as Treasury yields remain near their highs and ETFs don't return to inflows, a move back above $70,000 is unlikely, and any bounces will be short-lived. The first test is the US PPI: hot numbers would send BTC toward the 200-week moving average at $67,755, which was tested today during Asian trading. Beyond that lies a tactical capitulation zone near $64,500. One green session is not enough for a trend reversal: we would need three consecutive days of ETF inflows and a return above the lost 21-week average at $73,078. Until those conditions are met, I do not expect a sustainable rally.

Bitcoin

The current range runs between 67,700 and 68,800, and the plan is built around two mirrored directions with full breakout and pullback scenarios. For buying, the first scenario assumes a break above 68,800 with a target of 69,900 — a sensible level to take profit and consider a short on the pullback — provided price remains above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. The second scenario applies if a break below 67,700 proves false and price returns to the range. In that case, a pullback off 67,700 offers a buy with an initial target of 68,800 and a secondary target of 69,900.

For selling, the first scenario requires a confirmed close below 67,700 with a target of 66,300, provided the moving average is above price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a break above 68,800 fails to hold, a pullback from that boundary yields a short targeting a return to 67,700 and then 66,300.

Ether

The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale. The working range is 1,899–1,919. Buy on a break above 1,919 with a target of 1,949 — take profit there and consider a short on the pullback — or buy on a rebound from 1,899 after a false break below, with targets first 1,919 and then 1,949. In both cases, price should be above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator above zero.

Sell on a confirmed close below 1,899, targeting 1,867, provided the 50-day average is above price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero; or short on a failed break above 1,919, targeting 1,899 then 1,867.

Use both indicators only as filters to weed out false moves, not as standalone reasons to enter early; make trading decisions only after price confirms the specified levels.

Revolution in trading conditions

In October 2025, InstaForex dramatically changed its trading conditions by introducing four types of accounts: Insta.Standard, Insta.Pro, Insta.Raw, and Insta.Zero.

The updated range of trading accounts offers traders access to the lowest spreads and commissions in the market. The market entry price with InstaForex is 30% lower than that of the nearest competitors. Trading should be convenient and profitable regardless of your experience. That is why we developed new types of accounts that combine minimal costs and flexible conditions for both beginners and experienced traders.

Get to know the InstaForex account range — choose the one that suits you perfectly.

Insta.Standard is the basic account type with no restrictions on the deposit size. It serves as a good tool for starting trading with micro amounts, although it does not provide access to the lowest spreads in the trading account range.

Insta.Pro is a commission-free account type. It allows you to see in real time the full market entry price, which is equal to the spread. It provides similar ultimate market entry price conditions as Insta.Raw and Insta.Zero.

Insta.Raw is an account with minimal spreads and a fixed commission per trade. It provides direct access to real market prices. Costs consist of two parts: the spread (the difference between the buying and selling price) and a commission of 4–5 USD per market lot for major trading instruments.

Insta.Zero is an account with zero spreads for major Forex currency pairs. The entire cost of the market entry price is included in the commission, which ranges from 4 to 5 USD per market lot depending on the trading pair. Detailed information can be found on this page of the official company website.

Risk control as a competitive advantage

All trading accounts utilize a special type of trading lot (Insta Lot), which is ten times smaller than a market lot and consists of 10,000 units of the traded currency. This ensures ten times more effective risk control compared to competitors. InstaForex remains ahead of competitors in this regard as well.

All key advantages remain

The new conditions have not affected access to key services:

• Loss insurance
• Bonus programs for deposits
• ForexCopy — copy trade service
• PAMM service
• Affiliate program

Why choose InstaForex?

The platform already has over 7 million traders from around the world. The company is chosen not only by individual investors but also by professionals and well-known brands, from sports teams to international stars. More than 300 instruments, modern technologies, and round-the-clock support make trading convenient and profitable.

And now, the company offers spreads that will truly please you. This is not a temporary promotion, but part of a long-term customer strategy.

Start right now—your profitable trades are already waiting.

Open an account.

Support came from Trump's comments. The president told Vice President J.D. Vance to focus on domestic matters rather than negotiations with Tehran, cooling hopes for back-channel talks. "We do not need a deal with Iran," Donald Trump wrote, adding that Washington has already obtained Iran's money — hundreds of billions — and controls the strait.

Rhetoric has shifted noticeably. On November 4, Trump said there were no immediate plans for strikes; on November 8, he called new strikes highly unlikely; on November 9, he said they were not needed; and on November 6, he reportedly discussed a deal with advisers that would involve significant concessions to Iran. That option now appears sidelined. On October 29 Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, though Trump then framed it as a medical-aid offer. Tehran stated on November 12 it will not remove "a single gram of enriched nuclear material" from the country — one of the US's key demands.

Downside pressure persists. Brent has retreated from the October peak as Gulf flows recover and as markets expect a Democratic victory in the midterms — which could speed a resolution of the nine-month conflict. Saudi Arabia told OPEC its October output rose 26%, to one of the highest monthly levels in years, and Gulf exports are approaching prewar norms. US Department of Energy data added to the weakness: US crude stocks rose by 4.66 million barrels for the week versus an expected 0.6 million-barrel draw; refined-product inventories also increased; and refinery utilization hit a seasonal high.

Risks, however, remain. In October, 36 confirmed attacks on commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman occurred — more than in any month since the war began. Ukraine continues strikes on Russian refineries — at least seven attacks since late October — threatening to cut global fuel supplies. A firmer US tone gives the market reason to reprice some geopolitical premium.

All this means oil remains a two-sided market. While Washington rejects negotiations and attacks on ships continue, I expect Brent to stay in a $90–98 range, biased toward the upper bound; a move above $100 would likely require fresh escalation in the Hormuz area. I expect the weekly decline to persist because physical-market excesses and rising US inventories cap the rally.

On the technical side, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $89. That would set up a target of $92, above which a breakout will be difficult. The farther target is $95. On a decline, bears will try to seize $89; if they succeed, a range breakout would hit bulls hard and push oil to an $84 low, with a prospect of extending to $81.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on November 27-28, 2025 due to Thanksgiving day and Black Friday.

November 27:

• Closed full day:

US Shares

#SB.z

#CC.z

#KC.z

#CT.z

#OJ.z

#Wheat.z

• Early Close 18:30

#BRENT.z

• Early Close 00:00 - 19:30, 23:00 - 00:00

GOLD.m

SILVER.m

XCUUSD.m

#CL.z

XPDUSD.m

XPTUSD.m

• Early Close 17:00

#LSU.z

• Early Close 00:00 - 18:00, 23:00 - 00:00

NASDAQ100.x

SPX500.x

November 28:

• Early Close 20:00

#BRENT.z

• Early Close 00:00 - 19:45

GOLD.m

SILVER.m

XCUUSD.m

#CL.z

XPDUSD.m

XPTUSD.m

#NG.z

• Early Close 13:00 - 18:30

#CT.z

• Early Close 13:00 - 18:00

#OJ.z

• Early Close 01:00 - 13:45, 14:30 - 18:05

#Wheat.z

• Early Close 17:00

#LSU.z

• Early Close 00:00 - 18:15

NASDAQ100.x

SPX500.x

However, gold lost more than 6% over the past three sessions. The sell-off was triggered by US consumer-price data that beat forecasts and by Federal Reserve officials' comments backing a tougher tightening path. The cause is rates: yields on certain US Treasuries rose more than 12 basis points on Thursday, with short-dated paper — most sensitive to Fed policy — rising the most. Traders are pricing in a 25-bp hike in December, with a small chance of 50 bp, and some in the market even anticipate further hikes after December. John Williams and Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that inflation remains high, and Mary Daly stated, "My view is that further tightening will be required." Gold pays no yield, so every additional Fed move raises the opportunity cost of holding it.

Today's bounce is explained by buying on dips. A rally after the break below $4,000 can be attributed only to reserve managers stepping in. Previously, the $4,000 area was tested in July and late October, and the price was then supported by central-bank demand, large institutional buyers, and Chinese household purchases. The rebound is not driven by falling yields, so in my view it is more of a technical breather than a trend reversal.

Oil plays a role in this chain. Since the US–Iran war began in late February, gold and oil have largely moved in opposite directions. Disruptions to Middle East exports pushed energy prices up, prompting central banks to tighten policy, which in turn weighed on gold. Brent rose 3.3% on Thursday but has fallen over the past two weeks as hopes grew for a quick end to the nine-month conflict.

This afternoon the US Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released, and it is the first major test for the metal. September PPI jumped 1.3% m/m versus a 0.5% forecast, and the market now expects a much weaker 0.4% rise. Some analysts see a risk of gold falling to $3,870 if PPI surprises to the upside.

All this shows gold remains hostage to Fed policy. I believe the metal will trade below $4,000 until the Fed meeting on December 9; a strong PPI could test $3,870 and keep weekly losses intact. A return above $4,000 will require softer data and a dovish shift in Fed rhetoric.

On the technical side, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $3,906. That would set up a target of $3,954, above which a breakout will be difficult. The most distant upside target is $4,001. On a decline, bears will try to seize control of $3,849; if they succeed, a range breakout would deal a serious blow to bulls and push gold toward a $3,802 low with the prospect of reaching $3,756.

Affiliate Summit Dubai annually brings together key industry representatives from around the world — digital specialists, entrepreneurs, and marketers. This year's event set records in the number of participants, case studies reviewed, and the quality level of affiliate programs presented.

InstaForex participated in the summit as a Diamond Sponsor and introduced booth №15 to the business community, which became one of the main points of interest at the event. The company's managers held business discussions with potential and existing partners and presented exclusive cooperation terms and incentive programs.

One of the highlights was a presentation by an InstaForex analyst, focused on gold market analytics and current trends in affiliate program development, which attracted great interest from the audience. The expert shared fresh insights on the precious metals market and gave practical recommendations for increasing revenue within the affiliate model.

A significant recognition of InstaForex’s transparency and efficiency was the receipt of the “Lowest Spreads Leader” award, confirming that the company continues to offer some of the most favorable trading conditions in the financial market.

For InstaForex, participating in Affiliate Summit Dubai marked an important step in expanding its global affiliate network, seeking new strategic partnerships, and strengthening its position on the international stage.

The company thanks everyone who visited its booth for their engagement, trust, and interest in joint growth. InstaForex will continue to offer high-tech, reliable, and profitable solutions for a successful future to its clients and partners.

Together — to new heights!

The timeline is instructive. On October 30, the exchange suspended deposits and withdrawals, Bitcoin fell to $78,400, and Binance said that about $3 billion had been frozen, and losses would be covered. By the end of October, roughly 90% of stolen assets had been recovered. On November 3, Binance reported $2.85 billion frozen or intercepted, and now coverage has reached 100%. Binance absorbed the cost out of profits and emergency reserves — customers were made whole by the exchange, not by clawing back the stolen assets. The FBI named the group TraderTraitor, linked to North Korea, as the perpetrator on October 31. Pyongyang denies the accusations, and on November 2, Kim Yo Jong dismissed the claims as absurd propaganda. The US Justice Department says it will use every available tool to recover assets allegedly taken by North Korea.

The hackers were highly active. Elliptic reports that in the first week, more than 20,000 wallets and at least 65,000 transactions took part in laundering — a new wallet appeared roughly every 30 seconds and a transaction every 10 seconds. Funds flowed through bridges, mixers, and exchanges, and some $430,000 was laundered via bespoke memecoins. Chainalysis highlighted the role of Chinese laundering networks that cash out proceeds. The fact that $1.2 billion was stopped at the stablecoin issuers' side shows the key lever against such schemes is speed: freeze funds before they move beyond reach.

Market implications are twofold. On the one hand, Binance's reimbursement removes the most immediate risk that hung over the exchange on October 30, when liquidations exceeded $1.3 billion, and spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $643.2 million of outflows. On the other hand, selling has not ended. From October 30 through November 11, spot Bitcoin ETFs lost more than $2.5 billion, and on Friday, Bitcoin fell below $68,000, roughly 12% below the level on the day of the hack. That indicates the decisive factor for the price has been Fed rate expectations and Treasury yields, not the hack itself. I believe the reimbursement and Justice Department actions will not trigger a new buying wave until ETF flows return to positive territory; until then, Bitcoin remains under pressure, and the risk of breaching the 200-week moving average near $67,700 persists.

Technical analysis and recommendations:

Bitcoin

Buyers are targeting a return to $69,400, which opens a direct path to $71,100 and then $72,900. Clearing that level would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers to defend $68,200. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $66,500, with a further target near $65,000.

Ethereum

Consolidation above $1,974 opens a path to $2,020. The next upside target is around $2,093. A break above that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers should appear near $1,916. A break below that level could send ETH toward $1,872, potentially extending weakness to $1,834.

What's on the chart:

• Red: support and resistance levels where the price is likely to pause or accelerate.
• Green: 50-day moving average.
• Blue: 100-day moving average.
• Light green: 200-day moving average.

Crosses or price tests of these averages typically either stop a move or set a new market impulse.

Our booth №15 became a hub of business activity: the InstaForex team held numerous consultations with potential partners, presented personalized offers and shared strategies for affiliate growth. Guests received exclusive cooperation conditions — a great foundation for long-term and mutually beneficial partnerships.

A highlight of the event was our expert’s presentation on gold market analytics and current partner program trends. The audience highly appreciated the information, noting its practical value and relevance.

A special recognition for our efforts came with the “Lowest Spreads Leader” award — a testament to InstaForex’s ongoing leadership and commitment to providing some of the most competitive trading conditions in the industry.

Affiliate Summit Dubai has been a key platform for strengthening existing partnerships and expanding InstaForex’s global affiliate network. We thank everyone who came to our booth and showed interest in our company.

Looking ahead — more events, innovative products and global initiatives. Join InstaForex and grow with an industry leader!

The price test at 159.81 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a good entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips.

Yesterday's attempts to stabilize the yen achieved nothing, and today it remains under pressure from a strong dollar. Mimura, responsible for currency policy at Japan's Finance Ministry, said recent moves have been too rapid and warned it is too early to forget the summer events, which apparently led to a small market intervention to "feel out" the situation. However, dollar strength was reinforced by US data and speeches. Initial jobless claims rose only to 200K versus a 195K forecast, while continued claims actually fell. Daly said further tightening will be required because price pressures have spread beyond tariff- and oil-sensitive sectors. Cook (Hammack) confirmed policy needs to move to a restrictive stance, Goolsbee warned of the risk of demand overheating from AI, and Williams called inflation too high even in the latest data. Markets now price 25-bp hikes in December, January and March.

On top of this came a sell-off in Japanese government bonds following US Treasuries, which fell for a second session. Ten-year JGB yields rose 8 bps to 2.87%, and 30-year yields rose 7 bps to 3.99%. Expectations of further Bank of Japan tightening have also returned: swap markets now price in roughly an 87% chance of a move from the current 1.25% by December, up from about 82% yesterday. That is positive for the yen in principle, but it does not save the situation.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios to Buy

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point around 160.01 (green line on the chart) is reached, targeting a move to 160.23 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.23, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move away from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if it tests 159.87 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 160.01 and 160.23.

Scenarios to Sell

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 159.87 level is breached (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.63, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers can return at any moment — only a hint from the central bank is needed. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 160.01 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 159.87 and 159.63.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;

Thick green line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further upside above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;

Thick red line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further downside below this level is unlikely;

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the start.

Affiliate Summit Dubai is a landmark event that brings together top leaders in the affiliate industry, marketing experts, digital agencies, ad platforms, and representatives of global brands. Over the course of two action-packed days, attendees will have the opportunity to build strategic partnerships, discover cutting-edge performance marketing solutions, and explore new paths for scaling their business.

WHAT AWAITS YOU AT THE INSTAFOREX BOOTH:

• Face-to-face communication with the InstaForex professional team
• Exclusive benefits for affiliates and presentation of our partner program
• One-on-one consultations on highly effective traffic acquisition strategies
• Innovative solutions for monetization and income growth

A highlight will be a presentation by a representative of InstaForex on:

“Gold Market Outlook: Insights & Trends for 2025” — an exclusive analysis of gold price movements, global economic impacts, and the market outlook in the coming months.

We’re excited to meet our current and future partners to exchange experience, discuss success stories, and launch new collaborations that will elevate your business.

Grow together with InstaForex — visit booth #15 at Affiliate Summit Dubai 2025 on November 5–6 at The Ritz-Carlton DIFC!

Stay tuned on the InstaForex website and social media — we’ll be sharing details about special offers and surprises for summit guests soon!

The price test at 1.3265 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming a good entry point to sell the pound. As a result, the pair fell toward the target area of 1.3239.

To understand why sterling struggles to regain ground, let's calmly review yesterday's US figures. Initial jobless claims — the number of people filing for benefits for the first time after losing a job — came in at 200K versus a 195K forecast, while continuing claims fell to 1,697K against expectations of 1,720K, so finding work in the US remains relatively easy. But the main event was Federal Reserve commentary. Mary Daly said plainly that rates will need to rise further because price pressures are no longer confined to tariff- or oil-sensitive goods, and firms are increasingly passing costs on to consumers.

Note that the pound enters Friday's session without any UK releases in the first half of the day, leaving it little chance to stop its slide versus the dollar. Even yesterday's GDP figures did not help: September GDP rose 0.2% versus a 0.0% forecast, and Q3 grew 0.7% q/q.

I believe that as long as the divergence in rate expectations favors the dollar, pressure on the pound will persist, and in the second half of the day attention will shift to the US PPI and speeches by Collins and Bowman.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios to Buy

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point around 1.3238 (green line on the chart) is reached, targeting a rise to 1.3267 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3267, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move away from the level). Expect sterling to rise today only after strong reports. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3218 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3238 and 1.3267.

Scenarios to Sell

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3218 level is breached (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3185, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Bad news will restore pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3238 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3218 and 1.3185.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;

Thick green line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further upside above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;

Thick red line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further downside below this level is unlikely;

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the start.

IFX EXPO Hong Kong is a large-scale platform for networking among fintech professionals, online trading experts, brokers, payment providers, and global market solution providers. For two dynamic days, participants and visitors will be able to expand their business connections, discover innovative services, and learn about the latest industry trends.

At Stand No. 94, you will find:

• Personal meetings with the InstaForex team
• Answers to all your questions about our work and services
• Demonstrations of InstaForex’s innovative trading solutions
• Special offers for new and existing clients

IFX EXPO traditionally brings together key players from Asia and around the world. Take this opportunity to network, find new partners, and discuss future growth in the rapidly evolving fintech sector.

Join InstaForex at IFX EXPO Hong Kong 2025 to explore new business opportunities and strengthen your presence in the global market!

We look forward to seeing you on October 27–28 at AsiaWorld-Expo, Stand No. 94.

Follow InstaForex news — more exciting events and offers are coming soon!

The price test at 1.1089 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming a good entry point to sell the euro. As a result, the pair fell by more than 30 pips.

The dollar rose, and we should start with US figures released on Thursday. Initial jobless claims — the number of people filing for benefits for the first time after job loss — increased to 200K versus 195K expected and 191K a week earlier. But continuing claims fell to 1,697K against expectations of 1,720K, so the labor market remains firm and there are no serious employment problems yet. Existing-home sales fell to 3.75M versus a forecast of 3.85M (-5.5% month-on-month), which I view as a consequence of higher borrowing costs. The budget deficit in October was $404.1bn versus an expected $298.6bn.

For the Federal Reserve, however, its officials' words matter more now—and they were hawkish. Mary Daly said rates will need to be raised further because price pressures have spread beyond sectors tied to tariffs and oil, and firms are increasingly passing costs on to consumers. John Williams said inflation is too high even in the latest data and that action will be needed over time to bring it back to 2% promptly and durably. Separately, Fed governor Michael Barr spoke in a different vein: he did not discuss rates. Still, he warned that the rapid spread of AI could deepen inequality and cause serious labor-market shocks in the foreseeable future. His logic is that market power will concentrate in a handful of firms, the share of wages in national income will fall, and the severity of consequences will depend on the protections put in place now. He gave no forecasts for the economy or rates, so his remarks are more about economic structure than a market cue. By contrast, on September 1 Barr said the Fed needed to be ready to raise rates because high inflation might become entrenched.

I see an important detail here. AI growth also implies higher inflation, because building data centers creates huge demand, and Austan Goolsbee on November 9 already called this an old-fashioned demand overheat — something central banks typically respond to with tightening. Lisa Cook has also warned that AI could become an additional source of inflation in 2027. So AI does not weaken the hawks; it gives them new arguments.

This morning the euro will get its own drivers, chiefly the revised euro-area Q3 GDP estimate, which is expected to be unchanged at the preliminary 0.4%. On October 30, the preliminary figure surprised to the upside (0.4% vs. 0.2 expected), though it was below Q2's 0.6%; if the revision holds, the picture of gradually cooling growth remains. Employment for the same period is forecast to rise 0.2% after 0.1% previously, and the euro-area goods trade balance will also be released.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios to Buy

Scenario No. 1: Today you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1069 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1100. At 1.1100, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 pip move from the entry point. Expect euro strength today only after good data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1055 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1069 and 1.1100.

Scenarios to Sell

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1055 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1025, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move away from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of weak data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1069 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1055 and 1.1025.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;

Thick green line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further upside above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;

Thick red line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further downside below this level is unlikely;

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the start.

Forex Expo Dubai is a premier international exhibition and conference that annually gathers thousands of traders, investors, analysts, and fintech professionals in Dubai. This year’s event was held on October 7–8, 2025, attracting a record number of participants and speakers.

InstaForex took part as a Diamond Sponsor, presenting its own booth #81, which became one of the most visited at the expo. The company’s large international team — including English-, Hindi-, and Arabic-speaking managers — consulted visitors, introduced new company products and innovative services, and shared exclusive offers.

Guests received $1,000 gift certificates, learned about the ×10 bonus, and discovered the lowest spreads on gold and major currency pairs. Over the two days, the InstaForex team consulted more than 700 clients, demonstrating professionalism and a personal approach to each trader.

A special highlight of the event was the company’s speaker presentation titled “Trend Forecasts from InstaForex 2025”, featuring market insights and forecasts on global financial trends.

The “Lowest Spreads Broker of the Year” award is a well-deserved recognition of InstaForex commitment to transparency, reliability, and providing the best trading conditions for its clients.

This victory reaffirms the company’s leadership and its mission to make trading more accessible, efficient, and rewarding — empowering every trader to confidently build their financial future with InstaForex.

Williams's tone has shifted noticeably over two months. On September 2, he said the inflation trend was slowly moderating and, after the September hike, there was no rush, and it made sense to wait for more data. In mid-October, he expected another rate hike in 2026 but saw no need for further tightening in 2027. Now Williams says the data speaks very clearly: the economy is strong, the labor market continues to firm, and inflation is persistent. He argues the Fed still has much work to do to bring policy where it needs to be and that decisions will be made meeting by meeting based on incoming statistics.

He pointed to fresh datapoints. Core CPI rose by 0.3% m/m in October versus a 0.2% forecast, the third month in a row above expectations, while headline inflation gained 0.4% against a 0.3% consensus. Goolsbee called the print borderline worrisome. The labor market likewise offers little reason to pause: payrolls rose by 165k (consensus 65k), unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, and private sector job growth was the strongest since March.

Williams stressed the Fed should avoid unduly harming the maximum-employment mandate. He sees no signs of an overheating economy and judges the overall picture not to be imbalanced.

Also, he was upbeat on US government borrowing. In his view, fiscal strain is not primarily an economic problem: the country is growing faster than most, and an AI boom should deliver a decade of strong growth — so the resources exist to address budgetary issues; what is lacking is political will. He noted other countries also face fiscal strains, citing France, where 10-year yields recently rose above 5% for the first time since 2002 amid unrest.

At the same time, Williams acknowledged that some of the economy's strength may be fragile, and a significant slowdown or a shift in sentiment around AI could trigger a pullback. That caveat is apt after recent days when Nvidia shares plunged by about 20% on reports about its CEO. AI investment remains a core engine of US economic growth, and a cooling there would be the clearest risk to the Fed's aggressive scenario.

For FX markets, Williams's remarks mean that the committee center has joined the hawks, and the dollar gained another pillar of support. Yesterday's data was softer than expected — initial jobless claims 200k vs. 195k, existing home sales 3.75M vs. 3.85M, October budget deficit $404.1B vs. $298.6B forecast — but they didn't change the overall picture.

My base case remains a 25-bp hike on December 9, while a 50-bp step would become a real risk if the data keeps surprising to the upside. Today's US PPI is the first test, and I believe a stronger-than-expected print would cement expectations for three consecutive hikes and sustain pressure on EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Only a marked economic cooling or a sharp correction in AI-related activity would halt the dollar's advance, but there are no signs of that yet.

Our Booth 81 attracted a wide audience: the InstaForex team — including English-, Arabic-, and Hindi-speaking managers — provided consultations to more than 700 clients. We introduced our new products, such as the x10 bonus, ultra-low spreads on gold and currency pairs, and gave away $1,000 certificates as a token of appreciation to our guests.

Particular attention was drawn to the company representative’s presentation, “Trend forecasts from InstaForex 2025,” which highlighted key market trends and forecasts for the upcoming year.

The highlight of our participation was winning the award for “Lowest Spreads Broker of the Year” — a recognition of our commitment to offering the best trading conditions.

Forex Expo Dubai became a major platform for InstaForex to strengthen its regional presence and expand its partnership network.

Thank you to everyone who visited our booth — together, we’re setting trends in the trading world!

More expos, new products, and meetings with you are yet to come. Stay tuned and trust InstaForex — your guide in the world of financial opportunities!

The loudest remarks yesterday came from Mary Daly, and they mark a real turning point. Previously, she thought Federal Reserve policy was well positioned; now she says further tightening will be required. According to her, price pressures have spread beyond sectors tied to tariffs and oil, and firms are increasingly passing costs on to consumers. John Williams also confirmed a hawkish stance, saying inflation is too high even in the latest data and that, over time, action will be needed to bring it back to 2% in a timely and durable way. These comments were reinforced by yesterday's decent US labor-market data, which showed resilience.

There are no UK releases today, and without domestic drivers, the pound remains at the mercy of the dollar. Yesterday's GDP figures did not help: the UK economy grew 0.7% q/q in Q3 versus 0.5% previously, 1.9% y/y versus 1.4%, and September GDP rose 0.2% versus a 0.0% forecast. Industrial production added 0.3% month-on-month (vs -0.3% expected), and manufacturing rose 0.7% instead of the expected -0.5%. But even strong GDP figures did not stop the pound's decline because the market is focused on Fed rate expectations. In my view, without new UK data, sterling will continue to follow the dollar, and the weakness may persist.

Momentum

The price is now at 1.3232, inside a range between 1.3214 and 1.3245. A move beyond the boundary is a breakout, but one touch isn't enough—confirmation is needed, meaning several consecutive five-minute candles must close beyond the level. Otherwise, you can easily get caught by a false breakout, after which price returns.

From above 1.3245 is active. A close above it opens the way to 1.3275 and then to 1.3301. Overnight, the price rose only to 1.3241 — so it nearly reached the level but failed to break it, and this is a tested ceiling. The first target, 1.3275, coincides with the top of yesterday's bounce, so selling often appears there. There is no catalyst for such a jump today, so I have little confidence in that scenario.

Below the reference is 1.3214; a close below it leads to 1.3183, then to 1.3161. I consider this direction primary. The backdrop for the dollar remains strong — the Fed added hawkishness yesterday — and the pound has no own drivers. It's about eighteen pips to the level, and yesterday's low at 1.3221 must be passed first. If the price does that and closes below, the decline could be rapid. I would not enter on the first touch.

Mean Reversion

There are two levels here, 1.3245 and 1.3219. The upper reference 1.3245 coincides with the breakout point for long positions at 1.3245, and special caution is required. The same price serves both as a signal for upside and as the mark for a reversal downward, and you cannot tell which scenario has activated on the first touch. If the price closes above 1.3245, the upside breakout is in play and selling there is not allowed. If it reaches 1.3245, finds no continuation, and quickly returns below, I consider selling with a stop above 1.3251 with a small buffer. The difference between the two scenarios may take several minutes to reveal itself, so it's better to skip the initial reaction in the zone.

The lower reference 1.3219 sits five pips above the breakout point 1.3214 and almost coincides with yesterday's low at 1.3221. That means buyers appeared here once already. The scheme is this: price falls to 1.3219, fails to hold below, and returns higher; then I look to buy with a stop below 1.3214, with a buffer. Such a rebound is most likely if no new hawkish Fed remarks appear and the market starts taking profits at week's end. If price closes confidently below 1.3214, the reversion is canceled, and the downward breakout plays.

Forex Expo Dubai is one of the most significant gatherings for financial market professionals: traders, investors, brokers, and leading industry experts from around the world. In 2025, the event will unite more than 130 broker-exhibitors and 130+ speakers, offering participants a unique opportunity to learn about key innovations, services, and trends in the industry. During the two-day expo, guests will enjoy workshops, presentations, educational sessions, and direct networking with global market leaders.

By visiting the InstaForex booth, you will be able to:

• Speak personally with the international InstaForex team
• Receive an exclusive $1000 bonus for every guest
• Benefit from individual consultations with our experts
• Discover our cutting-edge trading solutions and offers

A highlight of the event will be a presentation by our speaker on the topic: “Trend forecasts from InstaForex 2025” — providing a fresh outlook on global financial market prospects and new technologies in trading.

And another great news — InstaForex will be awarded the prestigious "Lowest Spreads Broker of the Year" at Forex Expo Dubai 2025!

Don’t miss your chance to become part of the global trading community, meet our experts in person, and discover new horizons in the world of financial markets!

We look forward to seeing you on October 6–7 at Dubai World Trade Centre, booth 81. Stay tuned for updates and prepare for the ultimate deep dive into InstaForex innovations!

The reason is that the Federal Reserve delivered hawkish signals yesterday, and the biggest surprise was a shift in Mary Daly's tone. Earlier, she said policy was well positioned; now she says further tightening will be required. According to her, price pressures have spread beyond tariff- and oil-related sectors, and firms are increasingly passing costs on to customers. John Williams also confirmed a hawkish stance. He said inflation is too high even in the latest data and that action will be needed over time to bring it back to 2% promptly and sustainably. As recently as September, he thought there was no need to hurry after the first hike; now he describes the signals as very clear, the economy as strong, the labor market as strengthening, and inflation as persistent.

These comments came on top of an already hawkish backdrop. Earlier in the week Christopher Waller allowed for a 50-bp step if inflation does not improve, Lorie Logan spoke about at least two hikes, and Austan Goolsbee called October's report worrying. Against that background, yesterday's other figures were secondary. Initial jobless claims — people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time — were 200,000, and existing-home sales fell 5.5%. The market barely noticed, and futures now price in 25-bp hikes in December, January, and March. The Fed funds rate is now 3.75–4.00% versus the European Central Bank's deposit rate of 2.50%. As long as the ECB is limited to an expected single rise to 2.75% on December 17 while the Fed readies three steps, the euro has no basis for a sustained recovery.

Today market attention will focus on the second estimate of euro-area Q3 GDP and employment data. GDP shows how much the economy grew; the consensus expects growth to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q and 1.3% y/y, unchanged from the preliminary release. For comparison, Q2 growth was 0.6%; the preliminary Q3 figure came in stronger than the 0.2% forecast. Employment is expected to rise 0.2%, up from 0.1%. The picture will be completed by the trade balance, where the deficit is expected to shrink from €6.8bn to €4.5bn, and by France's consumer prices, which are expected to confirm October values — +0.4% m/m and +3.4% y/y. Good data would give the euro a late-week chance to recover, but most forecasts point to confirmation of prior figures, so a notable move will require surprises. Without them, in my view, the dollar will again be the main reference.

Momentum

The price is now at 1.1063, inside a range between 1.1036 and 1.1069. A move beyond the boundary is a breakout, but one touch isn't enough—confirmation is needed, meaning several consecutive five-minute candles must close beyond the level. Otherwise, you can easily get caught by a false breakout, after which price returns.

From above 1.1069 is active. A close above it opens the way to 1.1102 and then to 1.1133. It's only six pips to that level, and overnight the price already approached it closely. But a catalyst is needed for a break, and the euro-zone calendar is empty, with most releases merely confirming prior numbers. The only chance would be unexpectedly strong employment — I have little faith in that scenario.

From below, the reference is 1.1036; a close below it leads to 1.1004 and then to 0.9973. I consider this direction primary. The backdrop for the dollar remains strong — the Fed added hawkishness yesterday — and the euro has no own drivers. It's about 27 pips to the level, and yesterday's low at 1.1046 must be taken out first. If price does that and closes below, the decline could be fast, but I wouldn't enter on the first touch.

Mean Reversion

There are two levels here, 1.1071 and 1.1045. The upper reference 1.1071 lies only two pips above the breakout point 1.1069, and a novice needs particular caution here. You cannot determine the move's character from a single touch. If the price breaks 1.1069, reaches 1.1071, and quickly returns below, the reversion works, and I consider selling with a stop above 1.1080 with a small buffer. If it confidently closes above, that is a true breakout and selling there is not allowed. The difference between these scenarios may take several minutes, so it's better to skip the first reaction in the zone.

The lower reference 1.1045 sits nine pips above the breakout point 1.1036 and almost coincides with yesterday's low at 1.1046. That means buyers showed up here once already. The scheme is this: price falls to 1.1045, fails to hold below, and returns higher; then I look to buy with a stop below 1.1036, with a margin. This rebound is most likely if no new hawkish Fed remarks appear today and the market starts taking profits at week's end. If price closes confidently below 1.1045, the reversion is canceled, and the downward breakout plays.

Traders Fair Johannesburg is one of the main events for traders and investors on the African continent. On September 20, our presence at the exhibition brought together hundreds of professionals and enthusiasts who came to Johannesburg to exchange experience, discuss new trends, and build partnerships.

Our booth M15 became one of the most popular at the event: we held meetings with potential and existing clients, offered personal consultations, and provided detailed information about the key advantages of InstaForex, including 5% Cashback on every trade, daily analytics, minimal spreads and commissions, free VPN for clients, and an attractive rate of up to 25% per annum.

We also organized a draw for a certificate of $100,000 for all guests: everyone can fill out a form and try their luck as soon as tomorrow.

Traders Fair Johannesburg became an important milestone for InstaForex on its way to development in the region and building long-term relationships with the new professional community. We thank everyone who visited our booth, spoke with our team, and contributed to the atmosphere of the event.

More meetings and opportunities lie ahead—stay with InstaForex to lead the market!

Her main argument is that price pressure has moved beyond sectors directly tied to tariffs and oil, and an increasing number of firms say that they will pass higher costs on to consumers. Until recently, Daly described policy as being in a good place and saw no reason to change interest rates because of higher yields. Now, her current stance is materially firmer. She does not vote on rates this year but reiterated she supported both the September hike, the first since 2023, and October's pause, when the range stayed at 3.75–4.00%, with two votes in favor of a hike.

Hammack, speaking in Columbus, said that policy needs to move to a restrictive stance and left the door open to more forceful action if the Fed falls behind in fighting inflation, although she does not see that need now. Her tone has been consistent: on October 12, she warned that getting inflation back to 2% requires restrictive policy. She voted for a hike on October 28, and on November 5, she preferred more frequent, smaller moves.

Goolsbee warned in an interview that AI infrastructure buildouts could overheat demand, pushing the Fed into a zone where bringing inflation down is even harder. Last week, he raised the alarm over overheating driven by data centers, and on November 10, he called the CPI print "worrisome."

Daly is notably more cautious than her Chicago counterpart about the impact of AI. She accepts that capacity buildouts push prices higher, but so far, the effect on overall inflation is modest because cost increases are small and have not spilled across many sectors. In her view, other factors are currently driving headline inflation rather than AI-related goods. She remains optimistic about potential productivity gains, though timing is uncertain.

The broad nature of price pressure is reflected in October's CPI. Headline inflation rose by 0.4% m/m (Bloomberg consensus 0.3%), and core inflation added 0.3% m/m (consensus 0.2%). This was the third straight month of prints above expectations. The ranks supporting a December hike are expanding. Waller signaled a 50-bp option, and Logan said earlier in the week that winter could require more frequent hikes, whereas she previously discussed at least two 25-bp steps. Markets adjusted quickly: futures now price in 25-bp hikes at the next three meetings — December, January, and March.

In my view, the base case remains a 25-bp hike on December 9, while the risk of a 50-bp move persists if data continues to surprise to the upside. Today's US PPI will be the first test, and I believe strong figures would cement expectations for three straight hikes and increase pressure on EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Only materially weaker prints on prices and the labor market can stop the dollar's advance — and we do not see those signs yet.

As for EUR/USD technicals, buyers need to gain control of 1.1070. Only that would open a test of 1.1105. From there, a run to 1.1130 becomes possible, but doing so without support from large players will be difficult. In case of a pullback, I expect significant buying only around 1.1035. If that level lacks bids, it would be prudent to wait for a dip to a fresh low at 1.1004 or to open long positions at 1.0975.

The GBP/USD technical analysis shows that pound buyers must overcome the nearest resistance level of 1.3245. That would allow a move toward 1.3275, above which further gains would be challenging. The next upside target is around 1.3300. On a decline, bears will try to seize 1.3215. If they succeed, a range break would inflict serious damage on bulls, pushing the British pound to 1.3180, with the prospect of extending weakness to 1.3160.

Why you should not miss this event

Traders Fair Johannesburg 2025 is not just an exhibition, but a global platform for meeting leading experts in the financial world. Traders, brokers, analysts and investors from around the world will gather here to discuss the latest trends, new strategies and innovations shaping the future of financial markets.

The event will take place in the heart of South Africa’s business life — Johannesburg, which will turn into the center of global financial activity for one day. It’s a great networking opportunity, a chance to exchange experience and meet cutting-edge solutions in trading and investment.

What awaits you at the InstaForex booth

– Demonstrations of innovative trading solutions and analytical services

– Personal consultations with professionals in trading and investment

– Meetings with the InstaForex team and discussion of current industry ideas

– A draw for a $100,000 certificate among booth visitors

We have prepared special offers that will be available exclusively to exhibition visitors. It’s your chance to open new horizons in trading and investment together with InstaForex!

Join the global trading community

Traders Fair Johannesburg 2025 is not only an opportunity to explore the latest financial market innovations, but also a chance to expand your professional network. Educational seminars, panel discussions and masterclasses from leading industry experts will be held throughout the day.

Date: 20 September 2025

• Venue: Johannesburg, South Africa – Traders Fair
• Booth: M15

Follow our news to not miss details and special offers!

The GBP/USD pair also kept a downward bias on Thursday, continuing the tone of recent days. Recall that sterling had treated traders well in recent weeks with logical moves that matched fundamentals and the technical picture on higher timeframes. However, late last week the euro "infected" the pound. This week, a report that had no bearing on the Federal Reserve's December decision—a report that didn't even publish year-on-year figures markets and central banks usually rely on —triggered nearly a 200-pip rise in the US dollar. We are talking about US inflation. Does anyone remember the last time the dollar rose for two days after an inflation report? And what about the Fed's "favorite" inflation gauge, the PCE?

Yes, inflation came in slightly above forecasts, but only month-on-month. October's CPI therefore could not have changed the Fed's December decision — and indeed practically all FOMC officials had already indicated a second tightening was coming in December. The Fed has repeatedly signaled it is prepared to tighten at roughly every second meeting. So the fact that inflation was a touch above forecasts changes nothing in substance.

Yes, the Fed could raise rates once or twice more next year. But wasn't that the market's expectation since the summer? Did anyone really expect the Fed to stop after one or two hikes and immediately return inflation to 2%? Recall too that nearly all commentators have recently emphasized the strength of the US economy and labor market, which gives the Fed confidence to tighten further. Yesterday morning UK GDP reports were released: the UK economy grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter and 1.9% year-on-year in Q3 — well above Q2 — and September growth was 0.2%, beating forecasts. Thus, the UK economy is also showing solid results, which should give the Bank of England room to tighten policy further; the BoE, having just begun raising rates, could raise its key rate at least four times.

What was sterling's reaction to these UK data? None. The market kept buying the US dollar, because the UK economy and monetary-policy prospects are as uninteresting to the market now as euro-area data and European Central Bank prospects. In recent weeks the pound traded sensibly and technically, but it may now start to resemble the euro. In effect, over three days the pound fell back to the area from which it began its rise after bounces off the lower edges of the daily and weekly sideways channels a few weeks ago. The market can quite easily continue buying the dollar today. On Friday, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released, and if it prints even 0.1% above forecasts, everyone understands what will happen to the dollar... The pound remains range-bound on the weekly chart, but that flat will end sooner or later. Right now the price is, for the fourth time, racing toward the lower boundary of that channel across many pairs...

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 103 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is characterized as "average." On Friday, November 13, we therefore expect movement within a range bounded by 1.3131 and 1.3337. The major linear-regression channel is pointing down, indicating a downtrend. The CCI indicator has not recently entered overbought/oversold areas or formed divergences.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3184

S2 – 1.3123

S3 – 1.3062

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3245

R2 – 1.3306

R3 – 1.3367

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has entered a new downward trend within the daily-timeframe sideways channel. The year 2026 has been extremely positive for the dollar due to geopolitics and inflation, which drove capital to safety and prompted the Fed to return to monetary tightening. However, on the weekly timeframe, price remains flat between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year uptrend, supporting expectations of sterling appreciation in the medium term. Long positions with targets of 1.3428 and 1.3489 can be considered when price is above the moving average. When price is below the moving average, trade to the downside with targets of 1.3184 and 1.3123.

Explanations for the illustrations:

• Linear-regression channels help identify the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.
• The moving average (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the trading bias.
• Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) show the likely price channel the pair may trade within over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.
• The CCI indicator: readings into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) signal that a trend reversal is approaching.

To take part, simply top up your trading account and stay tuned — you might just be the lucky winner of the grand prize!

May the new season bring you success and joyful moments.

Join the promo and win with InstaForex!

Register

The GBP/USD pair continued to move lower on Thursday, although a rise in sterling would have been more logical. Yesterday the UK released GDP and industrial-production data for Q3 and for September. The economy showed 1.9% year-on-year growth in Q3 (in line with forecasts), 0.7% quarter-on-quarter (in line with forecasts) and 0.2% for September (above forecasts). Industrial production rose 0.3% month-on-month versus forecasts of -0.3%. Thus, two of the four reports beat expectations. Did the pound rally on those releases? Rhetorical question. The decline continued for a third consecutive day after the US monthly inflation report surprised by +0.1% versus expectations. This week sterling has traded in sync with the euro, ignoring virtually all positives for itself — geopolitics, macro data and fundamentals. Therefore, the pound's decline could continue back toward the lower edges of the daily and weekly sideways channels in the 1.3110–1.3180 range. Beyond that, it will depend on whether traders can break out of those channels on a fourth attempt.

Technically, sterling is forming a downtrend after breaking the ascending trendline. Higher timeframes still support further upside in the longer term, but the pound is falling again too fast and too far, heading toward the lower boundaries of the two major sideways channels.

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals formed on Thursday. During the Asian session, the price bounced from 1.3248, allowing traders to open long positions. The subsequent rise was weak and short-lived, and during the US session a sell signal formed at about the same level. The decline was also modest but may continue today.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market with short positions throughout 2026. The net position is negative despite the maintenance of a long-term uptrend. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that demand for the dollar remains fairly high in 2026. The war between the US and Iran has been formally put on pause but could resume at any moment. The Federal Reserve's changed stance on monetary policy also supports the dollar, and the ascending trendline was breached. However, it was breached within a flat range, so we do not consider the uptrend finished.

In the long run, the dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies aim directly and indirectly to weaken the US currency. The long-term uptrend remains intact. According to the latest COT report (dated November 3), the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,100 BUY contracts and closed 12,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 19,600 contracts over the week.

Analysis GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues a downward correction but overall retains a bullish bias. On the daily and weekly timeframes, the pair is targeting 1.3650, which is the upper boundary of the sideways channel on the daily chart. In recent days, US data have triggered another anomalous dollar rally, but GBP/USD remains inside sideways channels on higher timeframes. These channels protect it from a collapse like the euro's.

For November 13 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Ichimoku Senkou Span B (1.3386) and Kijun-sen (1.3339) lines can also generate signals. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven when the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day and should be considered when determining trade signals.

Today, no important releases or events are scheduled in the UK, while the US Producer Price Index (PPI) will be published. It is not the most important inflation report, but it can provoke a modest market reaction.

Summary of the above analysis:

Traders can consider the 1.3179–1.3187 area a target for short positions since 1.3248 has been breached. A close above 1.3248 would make 1.3301–1.3309 a target for long positions.

Notes on the charts:

• Support/resistance price levels (thick red lines) are areas where a move may stop; they are not direct signal sources.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B — Ichimoku lines projected from the 4-hour timeframe onto the hourly chart — are strong levels.
• Extremum levels (thin red lines) are prior bounce points and do serve as signal sources.
• Yellow lines denote trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the charts (COT) shows the net position size for each trader category.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on July 3-4, 2025.

July 3:

CFD Stocks - early close at 20:00;

Indices - early close at 20:15.

July 4:

CFD Stocks - closed full day;

Metals - early close at 20:00;

Futures Energy - early close at 20:00;

Futures Agro - closed full day;

Futures Metals - closed full day;

Futures Goods - closed full day;

Indices - early close at 20:00.

Trading hours for other financial instruments remain unchanged. Please adjust your trading decisions for this information.

The company reserves the right to introduce other unspecified restrictions without prior notice.

The EUR/USD pair continued its downward move on Thursday, although at a calmer pace than on Tuesday or Wednesday. Recall that, in essence, this week's dollar strength was triggered by the US inflation report, which in month-on-month terms printed 0.1 percentage point above consensus. That extra 0.1% — beyond what the market had been prepared for — was enough to send the US currency higher for three consecutive days, resulting in a gain of nearly 200 pips. Such are the realities of the FX market at the end of 2026: one inflation report that does not materially change the Federal Reserve's policy outlook through year-end, and the dollar rockets. The European Central Bank has tightened policy faster and more aggressively than the Fed — yet the euro has been falling for three months straight. We continue to believe that the ongoing decline in the pair, which began three months ago, is technical and speculative and does not match the current fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop. The market interprets most incoming information in favor of the dollar and disregards positives for the euro. This week, the price left the 1.1115–1.1261 sideways channel where it had spent a month, and the euro failed to show any meaningful correction after its two-month collapse.

Technically, the EUR/USD pair has exited the 1.1115–1.1261 sideways channel — and it did so via the boundary few expected. The euro's decline can now continue, and whether there are reasons for a new rally no longer seems to matter. In the present environment, a single report can trigger three days of dollar strength.

On the 5-minute timeframe, no new trading signals formed on Thursday. The last sell signal appeared on Wednesday after the break of 1.1115. Traders could have rolled short positions into Thursday and then into Friday, moved stops to breakeven, or taken profits—currently about 45 pips.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated November 3. On the weekly timeframe, it clearly shows that non-commercial traders' net position remains bearish and has fallen significantly in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Over the past eight months, traders have been cutting euro exposure in favor of the US dollar. Donald Trump's policies have not changed, which likely prevents the dollar from counting on long-term structural gains.

We still do not see fundamental factors that justify a sustained strengthening of the US currency. The Middle East war made the dollar temporarily extremely attractive, and the Fed's policy stance surprised the dollar for the second time this year. In the long run, the euro could fall as low as $1.08 (trendline), yet the longer-term uptrend remains relevant. Nevertheless, in recent months the market has considered only factors positive for the dollar and ignored everything else.

The positions of the Ichimoku red and blue lines indicate a bear advantage. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs among the "Non-commercial" group fell by 1,300 while shorts rose by 12,600. Accordingly, the net position decreased by another 13,900 contracts during the week.

Analysis EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has resumed its three-month downtrend without a single meaningful correction. On the daily and weekly timeframes, the chances of a strong, sustained trend remain high. However, for the euro to rise, it must be bought. Over the past three months, we have not seen any willingness in the market to buy the euro.

For November 13 we highlight the following levels for trading — 1.0949, 1.1006, 1.1115, 1.1154–1.1165, 1.1261–1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1665, as well as the Ichimoku Senkou Span B line (1.1190) and Kijun-sen (1.1150). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trade signals. Remember to move your Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the correct direction. This will protect against possible losses if the signal proves false.

On Friday, traders may watch the US Producer Price Index and the second estimate of Q3 GDP for the euro area. We do not expect the GDP revision to draw much reaction from traders or materially help the euro recover. The producer-price report, however, could trigger another leg higher in the dollar if it prints above expectations.

Summary of the above analysis:

Traders can consider targets for short positions near 1.1006, since the price has closed below 1.1115. On a bounce from 1.1006, one can consider a target for long positions at 1.1115.

Notes on the charts:

• Support/resistance price levels (thick red lines) are areas where a move may stop; they are not direct signal sources.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B — Ichimoku lines projected from the 4-hour timeframe onto the hourly chart — are strong levels.
• Extremum levels (thin red lines) are prior bounce points and do serve as signal sources.
• Yellow lines denote trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the charts (COT) shows the net position size for each trader category.

Traders Fair Philippines is one of the largest and most prestigious financial summits in Southeast Asia. Held in Manila on May 24, the event gathered thousands of traders, investors, brokers, and fintech professionals from across the region to discuss trends, build business relationships, and gain up-to-date insights from industry leaders.

Our booth M18, was among the most visited and eye-catching at the exhibition. Staffed by an international team of specialists from the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia, we were able to foster open and productive communication with every guest.

We gave detailed presentations about our company’s products, provided one-on-one consultations, and discussed partnership opportunities.

A highlight of the exhibition was the speech by our representative, Hafiz Omar. Speaking on the Traders Fair stage, he shared InstaForex’s mission, the brand’s global expansion, and the opportunities the company offers to clients and partners worldwide.

Of course, there were also some pleasant surprises - at the end of the day, we raffled off a $100,000 certificate, making for a bright and memorable conclusion to a packed day at the exhibition.

Participating in Traders Fair Philippines marked an important milestone for InstaForex in strengthening its position in one of the most promising markets. We thank everyone who visited our booth, spoke with the team, and became part of this exciting day.

Ahead lie new meetings and new horizons. Stay with us - and stay one step ahead!

Relatively few macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Thursday. Essentially, the only notable release is the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which is especially important for markets in the current environment. Recall that the Federal Reserve primarily focuses on headline inflation and the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index. The PPI only complements the overall inflation picture after those two indicators. Therefore, we do not expect an outsized reaction to the PPI, but the market will again use any formal excuse to buy the dollar. Thus, a higher-than-expected PPI could trigger another leg of dollar strength during the US session. In the eurozone today, the second estimate of Q3 GDP will be released, which is of relatively low importance.

Fundamental Events Breakdown:

Among Friday's fundamental events are speeches by Fed officials Mary Daly and Michelle Bowman. As we said, the Fed's monetary policy path through the end of the year is as clear as day, so we shouldn't expect anything new from FOMC officials. However, we also noted that the market will seize on any formal pretext to buy the US currency. So a slightly more hawkish tone from FOMC members could spark another dollar rally.

The geopolitical backdrop remains tense but has eased slightly in recent weeks. The US and Iran are not holding official talks at present, and after the Democrats' decisive election victory, Donald Trump himself seems uncertain what to do next regarding Iran. The Democrats have said they will press to end the war in the Middle East — a stance Trump, to put it mildly, does not share. Continuing a war without full Congressional support will be difficult for the US president, and Iran is not opposed to returning to the negotiating track. On the face of it, conditions appear to push toward a settlement, but yesterday Trump said the US does not need a deal with Iran... Some chances of a resolution exist, but the geopolitical situation remains largely uncertain.

Overall Conclusions:

During the final trading day of the week, market volatility may be low. The euro has left the sideways channel and may continue downward. The British pound remains in a downward correction. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1104–1.1114 area or the 1.1011 level, and the pound sterling from the 1.3259–1.3267 area.

Main rules of the trading system:

1. Signal strength is judged by how long the signal took to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false signals have been generated around a given level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat (range), any pair can produce many false signals or none at all. Technical levels can be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, ideally trade MACD signals only when volatility is strong, and a trendline or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are placed very close to each other (5–20 pips), treat them as a support/resistance area.
6. After a price moves 15 pips in the intended direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What is shown on the charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance — levels that serve as targets when opening longs or shorts or as sources of signals.

Red lines — channels or trendlines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect a currency pair's movement. Therefore, when they are released, one should trade as cautiously as possible or step aside to avoid a sudden price reversal against the prior direction.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money-management rules is the key to long-term success in trading.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on June 19, 2025.

Early Close at 21:30:

- Metals

- Futures Energy

Closed full day:

- CFD Stock

- Futures Agro

- Futures Metals

- Futures Goods

Trading hours for other financial instruments remain unchanged. Please adjust your trading decisions for this information.

The company reserves the right to introduce other unspecified restrictions without prior notice.

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair continued downward on Friday, driven by fundamentals that differ somewhat from EUR/USD. Sterling had risen fairly well in recent weeks but has already given back much of those gains. Drivers of GBP/USD's decline were US labor, unemployment, and inflation reports — all three printed readings that reinforced hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. Although the December Fed move (0.25%) remains the base case, the market is looking into 2027, and each inflation print above forecasts raises the odds of a longer and stronger tightening cycle. Unfortunately, as with the euro and the European Central Bank, the market largely discounts the fact that the Bank of England is also tightening and UK inflation is rising. Thus, declines into the 1.3150–1.3180 area can be rationalized, but any substantially deeper drop would be viewed as illogical.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, one sell signal formed on Thursday. Price spent about 12 hours trying to detach from the 1.3259–1.3267 zone and managed to do so during the US session, giving novice traders a simple short entry. The decline may continue today, especially if the PPI prints stronger than current forecasts. Traders could have taken profits of about 15–20 pips on shorts yesterday evening.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD has completed the formation of a corrective down move, while the overall bias remains bullish. Sterling generally trades more logically than the euro and therefore has a good chance to resume its uptrend after the correction ends. The technical picture on most timeframes supports a continuation of the pair's broader advance. Sideways channels on daily and weekly charts do not imply a major structural collapse.

On Friday, novice traders may consider new short positions targeting 1.3175–1.3180 if price bounces off the 1.3259–1.3267 area. Open long positions targeting 1.3319–1.3331 if price closes and holds above 1.3259–1.3267.

On the 5-minute timeframe you can trade the levels 1.3043, 1.3096–1.3107, 1.3175–1.3180, 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3380–1.3386, 1.3456–1.3476, 1.3587–1.3598, 1.3631–1.3641. No major UK releases are scheduled for Friday; in the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released — an important print in the current environment. The market may continue buying the dollar if PPI surprises to the upside.

Main rules of the trading system:

1. Signal strength is judged by how long the signal took to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false signals have been generated around a given level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat (range), any pair can produce many false signals or none at all. Technical levels can be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, ideally trade MACD signals only when volatility is strong, and a trendline or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are placed very close to each other (5–20 pips), treat them as a support/resistance area.
6. After a price moves 15 pips in the intended direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What is shown on the charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance — levels that serve as targets when opening longs or shorts or as sources of signals.

Red lines — channels or trendlines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect a currency pair's movement. Therefore, when they are released, one should trade as cautiously as possible or step aside to avoid a sudden price reversal against the prior direction.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money-management rules is the key to long-term success in trading.

Forex Traders Summit Dubai is an international platform for exchanging experience, ideas, and technology in the field of online trading. The event took place in Dubai on May 14–15 and gathered over 6,500 participants, including traders, investors, fintech representatives, and professionals from around the globe.

We are honored to have participated as a Diamond sponsor of this major event, once again affirming our leadership in the industry. As a result of the summit, InstaForex was named the winner in the prestigious “Most Innovative Mobile Trading Application” category.

This award reflects our dedication to developing cutting-edge, user-friendly, and reliable mobile trading solutions. For us, it is not just recognition of the work already done. It is confirmation that we are on the right path, addressing the real needs of both traders and the market.

This recognition reaffirms that InstaForex is a true industry leader that not just follows trends but sets them. Moving forward, we aim to strengthen this position by enhancing our innovative products and making trading even more accessible and efficient so that every client can confidently build their financial future with us.

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD pair finally left the sideways channel on Thursday after spending a month inside it. More precisely, the break of the 1.1104–1.1114 area occurred on Wednesday, and on Thursday the pair confirmed it by closing below it. Thus the flat can be officially considered over — but it ended in a way few expected. Neither Wednesday nor Thursday saw strong fundamentals to justify another drop. Yet traders have long grown accustomed to the situation where reasons are lacking, but the euro falls anyway. While on Tuesday the dollar found demand on the back of hotter-than-expected October inflation, which raised the odds of tighter Federal Reserve policy in 2026–2027, by Wednesday and Thursday that rationale had largely been priced in. Nevertheless, the euro kept falling despite similarly hawkish prospects for the European Central Bank and a gradual easing of geopolitical tensions in recent weeks.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, a very good sell signal formed on Thursday that traders could use. During the European session, price precisely tested the 1.1104–1.1114 area (the lower boundary of the sideways channel), allowing traders to open short positions. The pair's decline could continue today, and even on Thursday evening profit-taking would have yielded about 40 pips.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has resumed forming a downtrend, and the flat appears to be over. The euro has still not corrected properly in recent weeks. Given recent events, we do not believe the euro had to fall like a stone; the dollar is heavily overbought, and many euro-positive factors are being ignored. The euro has been falling for three full months with almost no correction.

On Friday, novice traders can remain in short positions after confirmation below the 1.1104–1.1114 area, targeting 1.1011. Open long positions on a decisive close above the 1.1104–1.1114 zone, targeting 1.1198–1.1218.

On the 5-minute timeframe consider the levels 1.0940–1.0952, 1.1011, 1.1104–1.1114, 1.1198–1.1218, 1.1267–1.1275, 1.1366–1.1377, 1.1461–1.1474, 1.1527–1.1531, 1.1584–1.1594. On Friday, the eurozone will publish the second estimate of Q3 GDP, and the US will release the Producer Price Index. The PPI in particular could trigger another leg higher for the dollar, since the market remains in search of catalysts to buy the US currency.

Main rules of the trading system:

1. Signal strength is judged by how long the signal took to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false signals have been generated around a given level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat (range), any pair can produce many false signals or none at all. Technical levels can be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, ideally trade MACD signals only when volatility is strong, and a trendline or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are placed very close to each other (5–20 pips), treat them as a support/resistance area.
6. After a price moves 15 pips in the intended direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What is shown on the charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance — levels that serve as targets when opening longs or shorts or as sources of signals.

Red lines — channels or trendlines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect a currency pair's movement. Therefore, when they are released, one should trade as cautiously as possible or step aside to avoid a sudden price reversal against the prior direction.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money-management rules is the key to long-term success in trading.

We’re proud to have participated in this landmark event as a Diamond Sponsor. Our booth (#31) quickly became a key attraction for both novice and professional traders alike.

Over the course of two days, the InstaForex team actively engaged with visitors, offering expert insights into our core offerings — low-spread trading accounts, the “NDB $5,000 Bonus” program for new clients (allowing them to start trading with no initial deposit), and attractive partnership opportunities.

Visitors to our booth also had the chance to open a live trading account on the spot and automatically enter our $100,000 prize draw — a major crowd-puller.

Another highlight of our exhibition space was the tech showcase: a multilingual humanoid robot that held live conversations, and a robotic dog that instantly won over attendees with its friendly behavior and interactive features.

Our commitment to innovation was further recognized when we received the prestigious Most Innovative Mobile Trading Application award — a testament to our drive to deliver cutting-edge solutions that make trading convenient and effective from any device, anywhere in the world.

Forex Summit Dubai 2025 was more than just a networking event — it was a powerful affirmation that InstaForex is moving forward with confidence, shaping the future of online trading and setting new standards in the industry.

Thank you to everyone who visited our booth, connected with our team, and shared this incredible experience with us. We look forward to seeing you at upcoming international events — stay tuned for more updates!

On the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair shows a bullish technical bias after breaking the 159.00 resistance level, which repeatedly capped upside attempts since September. The pair has now approached the psychologically important 160.00 mark and moved into a consolidation phase; verbal warnings about possible currency intervention triggered a moderate pullback on Thursday.

The bullish breakout is confirmed by the pair trading above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) near the round 159.00 level, and also above the 200-day SMA (158.65). The relative strength index (RSI) sits around 62, indicating positive momentum while remaining below overbought territory.

A confident close above 160.00 would open the way to the next resistance at 160.40, which in turn could set the stage for further gains toward the round 161.00 level. However, concerns about potential intervention could make any move above that area highly volatile.

Conversely, if the pair fails to decisively clear 160.00, profit-taking could be triggered. In that case, the nearest meaningful support would be at 159.00, reinforced by the 100-day SMA. A break of this zone would weaken the current bullish case, opening the path to the 200-day SMA (around 159.00) and then to the horizontal support at 157.80, where the 200-day EMA runs.

At present, the technical impulse favors further upside, but the proximity of 160.00 creates a delicate market situation. The question is not only whether the dollar can continue to rise, but whether Japanese authorities will allow it to do so without resorting to countermeasures.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on May 26, 2025.

Metals - Early Close at 21:30.

Futures Energy - Early Close at 21:30.

CFD Stocks - Closed full day.

Futures Agro - Closed full day.

Futures Metals - Closed full day.

Futures Goods - Closed full day.

Indices:

#FTSE - Closed full day.

#SPX - Closed full day.

#NDX - Closed full day.

#INDU - Closed full day.

#HSI - Early Close at 11:30.

#N225 - Early Close at 20:00.

#DAX - Early Close at 23:00.

What specifically crushed gold

• Inflation broke the "peak rates" narrative. October core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month — the third month in a row — beating the 0.2% forecast. For the market, this signaled that the Fed will not only hold rates steady but may act more aggressively. Fed member Christopher Waller said outright that, given such data, a 50-bp hike might be required.
• Employment data removed the last argument for a pause. Initial jobless claims came in at 200k versus 195k expected. Although slightly above the forecast, the number remains near historic lows and confirms the labor market is intact. That means the Fed has no reason to ease.
• The dollar soared to a 19-month high. The DXY broke 103.08, returning to April 2025 levels. For dollar-priced gold, this is a direct hit: the metal becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies.
• Trump rejected a deal with Iran, and that worked against gold. He wrote on Truth Social: "We do not need a deal with Iran. Those days are over. We have their money, hundreds of billions, and we have their strait!" That killed hopes for a diplomatic settlement that had been supporting gold on Monday. Oil jumped immediately (Brent above $93), and for gold this was negative: higher oil - stronger inflation expectations - even more hawkish Fed - higher real rates - pressure on the metal. The paradox is that geopolitics normally supports gold as a safe haven. But in the current configuration, the market trades not fear but inflation via oil.

Why stock indexes are rising

Indexes and the dollar rise not despite this logic, but because of it. The equity market focuses on economic resilience rather than rates per se. Strong employment data imply consumer demand and corporate earnings will remain high. The Dow Jones rose 0.5%, the S&P 500 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 1.6%. Investors buy stocks because the US economy looks strong, and the Fed's rate hikes are a response to that strength, not to weakness.

The essence of the paradox

Gold and equities operate in different coordinate systems:

• For equities, strong data = good (earnings rise).
• For gold, strong data = bad (rates stay high; opportunity cost of holding the metal increases).

As long as this divergence persists, gold will remain under pressure even if the dollar and equities continue to rise in tandem.

Key events to watch

• Friday, Nov 13, 13:30 GMT — US Producer Price Index (PPI) for October. This is the main trigger at week's end. If PPI is strong, odds of a 50-bp move will increase, and gold could test 3,884 and lower. If PPI is weak, there's a chance for a technical bounce toward 3,965–4,012.
• Continued Fed commentary. After Waller, the market will watch any hints of more aggressive tightening. Speeches by New York Fed President John Williams and other officials can intensify or ease pressure on gold.
• Geopolitical backdrop — Iran negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz. After Trump's statement, hopes for a deal largely vanished; any escalation will return a risk premium to oil. For gold, this is double-edged: higher oil boosts inflation expectations, which supports Fed hawkishness.

What's next for gold

The immediate fork in the road is Friday's PPI. Technically, gold is already in oversold territory, but momentum is strong. OCBC notes the macro environment has turned less favorable, but the bank "does not flip to a bearish medium-term stance." That implies: short-term — continued pressure; medium-term — a chance for recovery once the market digests the Fed's hawkish scenario.

Traders Fair is a global platform where traders, investors, brokers, and industry leaders from around the world come together. Since its launch in 2018, the fair has already covered major cities such as Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh, Singapore, Johannesburg, and of course, Manila – one of the most vibrant financial hubs in Southeast Asia.

The upcoming event in the capital of the Philippines will gather more than 500 speakers and over 3,000 professionals from the financial industry. Guests can expect a comprehensive program including workshops, masterclasses, and educational sessions delivered by top industry experts.

At the InstaForex booth, you will be immersed in the world of modern trading solutions. We will showcase our flagship platforms and innovative tools that open new horizons in online trading. Every visitor will have the opportunity to speak with our experts, discuss strategies, receive personalized advice, and gain a fresh perspective on growing personal capital.

Moreover, we will offer exclusive partnership terms and special bonuses that are only available at this event, along with raffles of substantial cash prizes.

Don’t miss the opportunity to meet our team in person and discover new trading solutions! See you on May 24 at Traders Fair Philippines 2025, booth M18!

The EUR/USD pair traded between 1.1114 and 1.1269 for a month. On Tuesday, the United States released its October inflation report, which triggered another wave of selling by bears. These selling pressures continued on Wednesday, pushing the euro slightly below the established range. At present, it is too early to say with certainty that the sideways movement has ended. The price could still sweep liquidity below the last two lows before reversing in favor of the euro. However, the price action over the past five trading days does not suggest a favorable outlook for the single currency. On Wednesday, there were no significant news releases that could have provided new support for the dollar. Therefore, the latest decline in EUR/USD appears rather unusual. There are no clear reasons for another appreciation of the US currency after its gains over the past three months. The market continues to price in the Fed's future monetary policy tightening, which is expected in a month and has already been priced in repeatedly.

Over the past two months, the fundamental backdrop has frequently favored the euro, but this has had virtually no impact on its exchange rate. Last week, it became known that the Republican Party had suffered a decisive election defeat, while inflation in the European Union accelerated to 4%. The US Congress will now be divided, and cooperation between Democrats and Republicans is likely to remain extremely difficult. As a result, many important government decisions could face significant delays. Another increase in inflation in the European Union points to further ECB monetary policy tightening, just as rising inflation in the United States points to further Fed tightening. If the market is pricing in another FOMC rate increase, it should also be pricing in further ECB rate increases. However, over the past few months, the fundamental relationships driving EUR/USD have been highly inconsistent.

It is worth recalling that one of the main reasons behind the dollar's appreciation over the past three months was the Fed's hawkish stance. However, in practice, the Fed's position is not particularly hawkish compared with that of other central banks. For example, the ECB is expected to implement its third rate increase in December, while the Bank of England has only just begun its monetary policy tightening cycle but could deliver as many as four full rounds of increases. The pound is responding to these factors, whereas the euro is not.

At present, there are no signs that the bearish move is coming to an end. Imbalance 24 remains valid, and the price has yet to react to it by forming a sell signal. Buyers need to invalidate Imbalance 24 and form bullish patterns before any meaningful recovery can be expected. This would require a sharp upward move in the euro, which has yet to materialize. The liquidity sweep above 1.1270, together with strong US labor market and inflation data, triggered another wave of selling. Buyers can now only hope for another liquidity sweep below the recent lows. Another bearish imbalance could form this week.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop continues to favor buyers. Despite the Fed's increasingly hawkish monetary policy stance, this is not the only factor determining exchange rates. Thursday's economic data provided no justification for renewed dollar buying, yet the market is currently showing no interest in selling the US currency under any circumstances.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• European Union – Change in GDP in the Third Quarter (10:00 UTC).
• United States – Producer Price Index (13:30 UTC).

On November 13, the economic calendar contains two scheduled releases, including the US PPI report, which deserves particular attention. Economic data may influence market sentiment during the second half of Friday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

The pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend, which has been undergoing a corrective pause for an entire year. The fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of bears nine months ago, but the four-year trend cannot yet be considered invalidated or complete. Buyers could resume their advance before the end of the year. However, their main opportunities are currently limited to the low of 1.1066 established in June last year and the low of 1.1105 recorded two weeks ago.

As for sellers, they have Imbalance 24 and the liquidity sweep above the recent high in their favor. A liquidity sweep is not, in itself, a pattern or trading signal, but it warns the market of a potential move in a particular direction. This is precisely the type of movement observed over the past five days. No trading signals have formed in recent days.

Money Expo Abu Dhabi is one of the largest international events in the field of trading and financial technologies. The event took place on April 23–24 at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre and brought together over 3,000 participants, including investors, traders, representatives of fintech companies, and media.

We are proud to have participated in the expo as a Diamond Sponsor. For us, this is not just an honorary title but a confirmation of the high level of trust and recognition our company enjoys on the international stage. Receiving the "Forex Broker of the Year" award is a recognition that affirms the correctness of our chosen path, our commitment to quality, and our drive for growth.

We sincerely thank our clients, partners, and all participants of the event for their trust and support — this victory rightfully belongs to everyone who moves forward with us!

After a strong Monday that raised hopes for a sustained recovery in the pound, the GBP/USD pair plunged by 190 points. The latest decline over the past few days was once again driven by US economic data. October inflation rising by 0.4% month over month was enough to trigger a sharp appreciation of the dollar. In this case, the market appears to be experiencing another move driven primarily by traders' strong demand for the dollar. In other words, the dollar is not rising because of high inflation, a strong labor market, or low unemployment. It is rising because market participants are eager to buy it.

Yesterday, it became known that the Bank of England could raise interest rates a total of four times. This assessment was provided by representatives of the British economic research institute NIESR. Inflation in the UK is also rising, and, somewhat unexpectedly, could reach 5% next year. As a result, the Bank of England may need to raise interest rates at least three times and, more likely, four times. Would such clearly hawkish information have a positive effect on the pound? On Thursday, UK GDP reports were released, showing fairly strong results, but they attracted little attention from traders. The pound declined toward the order block, which may be its only source of support against a further decline.

Last week, the Bank of England implemented its first monetary policy tightening. Traders' reaction to this decision was rather mixed. Bullish momentum did not resume, even though the outcome of the Bank of England meeting could be considered as hawkish as possible. Bank of England policymakers not only raised interest rates, as expected, but also did so unanimously. However, traders placed greater importance on US inflation and labor market reports, which also increased the likelihood of further monetary policy tightening. Nevertheless, the market currently views potential Fed rate increases differently from further rate increases by the Bank of England.

An important factor supporting the pound's outlook is that traders expect the Bank of England to implement at least three additional monetary policy tightenings, while the Fed is expected to raise rates only once or, at most, twice. Naturally, the course of events in 2027 remains uncertain, but this is currently the weighted average market forecast. Therefore, the Bank of England could ultimately raise interest rates more aggressively than the Fed, which is unlikely to support the US currency. Geopolitical developments could support the dollar in the near term if Donald Trump decides to resume military operations against Iran. However, in recent days, Trump has spoken more frequently about reconciliation, negotiations, and concessions than about launching new strikes. Therefore, Iran and the United States may be moving toward a ceasefire after all.

Do bears have further downward potential? In my view, it is limited. Bears have pushed the dollar toward the upper end of the current trading range, but they have still failed to break out of it. There have been several compelling reasons to buy the dollar in 2026, but there have also been reasons for the pound to strengthen, which traders have frequently overlooked. As a result, the dollar and the pound, unlike the euro, have generally followed a relatively consistent pattern throughout the year, alternating between periods of appreciation and depreciation while remaining within a trading range.

The fundamental backdrop on Thursday was favorable for a bullish move. Annual, quarterly, and monthly GDP figures all showed strong results, while industrial production in September increased more than expected in both monthly and annual terms. However, no recovery in the pound has emerged so far. If the market has once again abandoned buying interest, the pound could continue to decline regardless of the incoming economic data. At present, the main hope lies in the order block.

The overall fundamental outlook remains such that, over the long term, a decline in the US dollar remains the most likely scenario. The conflict between Iran and the United States has not changed this assessment. Geopolitical developments reminded the market of the dollar's safe-haven status, but the conflict is currently on hold and could even come to an end. Therefore, until hostilities resume, a new bearish advance is not expected. Further escalation remains possible, as Donald Trump could still make an unexpected decision. If the next round of negotiations ends in the same way as the previous ones, Trump may decide to launch new strikes. Even the Democrats may be unable to prevent such a decision.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – Producer Price Index (13:30 UTC).

On November 13, the economic calendar contains just one scheduled release, which could easily trigger another bearish move. Economic data may influence market sentiment during the second half of Friday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. In recent weeks, buyers have controlled the market, but only within the trading range, which is clearly visible on the daily chart and remains intact. The local outlook is also bullish. A buy signal formed within Imbalance 32, but the pound's advance was short-lived due to strong US economic data.

The pound's upward target remains near the upper boundary of the trading range at 1.3670. However, traders now need fresh bullish signals. The only potential source of such signals is the market's reaction to the order block. An order block is a strong and relatively rare pattern, so the probability of a rebound from it is considered high. However, the first test of the zone did not produce a significant rebound.

Why You Can’t Miss This Event

The Forex Traders Summit Dubai is the largest international platform for those who want to grow, develop, and discover new opportunities in financial markets.

You can look forward to two intensive days of networking, learning, discoveries, and valuable connections:

85+ speakers from 40 countries will deliver practical sessions and panel discussions;

100+ leading financial companies will showcase their innovative solutions;

1000+ traders and investors will create a unique networking environment.

The summit’s unique atmosphere will place you at the heart of the changes shaping the future of financial markets!

What Awaits You at Our Booth

You will get an opportunity to learn more about our company and discover the advantages that millions of traders worldwide have already appreciated.

Today, InstaForex offers:

Over 300 trading instruments for all trading styles;

A wide range of accounts with various spread conditions and leverage from 1:1 to 1:1000;

Generous bonuses and profitable partnership programs.

At our booth, you will be able to:

Explore the latest products and services for traders and investors;

Receive personal consultations from InstaForex’s top experts;

Participate in raffles and receive delightful gifts;

Take advantage of exclusive bonus offers available only at the summit.

We will be happy to answer your questions, tell you about new opportunities, and offer solutions that will help you achieve even greater success in the financial markets!

See You on May 14-15 at Our Booth No. 31 at Festival Arena in Dubai!

Don’t miss the chance to be part of the largest financial event of the year and unlock new growth opportunities with InstaForex!

GOLD is trading around $3,885. It is about to close the gap that opened on October 30 around $3,875, and is likely to continue falling in the coming hours until it closes that gap; it could even reach the low from that date, around $3,869.

On the H4 chart, gold shows strong bearish potential after attempting to break above $4,062—where the Murray 2/8 level sits—which is acting as strong resistance and has triggered this sharp decline; it is likely to find solid support around the daily S_3 level at $3,859.

Given that gold's objective is to close the gap left on October 30 and then resume its uptrend, we must be prepared for a strong technical rebound. Above $3,859, the outlook could be positive, and we could expect gold to return to the psychological level of $4,000.

In the medium term, if we look at the next gap that gold has left unfilled, it is around $4,273; technically, if the price moves back above the 200-day EMA and above the 21-day simple moving average (SMA), it could reach this level in the coming days.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell below $3,906 with a target of $3,975 to close the gap, and we could even continue selling until the price reaches the daily S3 level, around $3,859. This area could provide strong support for gold, and we could expect a technical rebound.

Our aim is to wait for consolidation above $3,850; if the price remains above this zone, we could buy in anticiation of the price returning to the Murray 2/8 level, around $4,062.

One of the highlights of our participation was a $100,000 giveaway, which attracted tremendous attention from the exhibition guests!

We impressed visitors with a demonstration of a humanoid robot powered by artificial intelligence, capable of communicating in various languages, engaging in conversations, and explaining the opportunities and advantages of working with InstaTrade. Another crowd favorite was our robotic dog, which sparked excitement among the public.

The InstaTrade team also took to the stage to present the company’s key programs, sharing our solutions for traders and investors. During the expo, we participated in interviews where we discussed the company’s growth prospects and the reasons behind our active involvement in such a significant event.

A particular point of pride was receiving the Forex Broker of the Year award, a testament to the high level of trust and recognition from the professional trading community. We continue to stay ahead of the curve by implementing cutting-edge technologies and opening new horizons for our clients and partners.

Join InstaTrade today and become part of an innovative future in the world of finance!

Crude oil is trading around $85.61, consolidating above the 3/8 Murray level and pulling back after encountering strong resistance at the 4/8 Murray level, around $87.50.

Crude oil could return to the $90 level and even the psychological $100 level in the coming days, as we are seeing strong oversold conditions; therefore, as long as the price remains above the 3/8 level, the outlook will remain positive, and we could open long positions above this zone.

If crude oil consolidates above $85.64 in the coming hours, this will be considered a positive signal to buy, with targets at $87.50; in turn, a decisive break above $87.50 will be seen as an opportunity to resume buying, with targets at $90.62 and around the 200-day EMA, currently at $92.83.

Conversely, a move below the 3/8 Murray level could change the outlook for gold, and a decisive break below that level could reverse the uptrend, enabling a decline to $81.25 and, potentially, even to the psychological level of $80.

To celebrate World Football Day, InstaForex is launching the Chancy Deposit campaign!

The prize is $4,000. To participate, simply top up your trading account and wait for fortune to play on your side.

Football teaches us to take risks, win, and never give up. The same rules apply in trading.

Top up your account, and maybe you will score your biggest financial goal this spring!

Register

On November 10, Google opened access to its new flagship model, Gemini 4 Carbon. Paid developers, companies, research institutions, and Google AI Ultra subscribers can now connect via the Gemini API in Google AI Studio, Gemini for Business, the Gemini app (including AI in Search), and the Antigravity platform. The model had previously been available only to cybersecurity specialists.

Google introduced an aggressive promo price through November 30: $2 per 1M input tokens and $10 per 1M output tokens, with rates set to double after the promotion. Versus competitors, the entry price looks attractive: roughly one-fifth the token cost of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and about one-quarter the price of Anthropic's Fable 5.2. It is not yet clear whether Carbon will be included in lower-tier plans or a free tier. Follow the link for more details.

Local tech rally and strong dollar

Tech stocks received a powerful lift after CoreWeave's quarterly report: revenue surged by 168% to $3.7 billion, the company raised its full-year outlook, and earnings beat estimates. That boosted the stock in US trading and lifted the Nasdaq 100 by nearly 2%. The rally, however, remains localized: broad-based buying is absent, valuations of large tech names are still strained, and financing, regulatory, and energy risks persist.

At the same time, the dollar is strengthening on a repricing of Fed policy expectations. Hot inflation prints and hawkish official comments have pushed the odds of a December interest rate hike to roughly 85%, leaving little room for a pause. So tech optimism is coexisting with a strong dollar and ongoing market uncertainty. Follow the link for more details.

Throne, chips, and Singapore

Microsoft has overtaken Nvidia in market capitalization for the first time since June 2025 and reclaimed the No. 2 global spot. Apple remains the leader, while Nvidia slid to third after the spy-related scandal involving its CEO Jensen Huang, which rattled investor confidence.

The scandal also exposed a deeper issue: for years, Chinese firms have been bypassing US export controls via Singapore and a web of intermediaries to gain access to Nvidia's top chips. Officially, the equipment was shipped to regional cloud providers "for local use," but in practice, it was leased and routed to China. A chain of multiple legal entities and resellers makes Washington's controls practically unenforceable and export bans ineffective. Follow the link for more details.

Nvidia scandal and hawkish Fed send global markets reeling

Global equity markets are again moving lower, and the primary trigger is the unprecedented crisis at Nvidia. Amid reports of the CEO's alleged extramarital relationships — one partner reportedly under suspicion of spying for China — the board has launched an emergency probe and is vetting successors. The scandal not only hammered the chip giant's shares but also dragged down the entire AI sector, which had just started to recover on positive headlines from OpenAI and Anthropic.

Further pressure comes from the Federal Reserve's tightening. Traders now price in a December rate hike almost fully, and amid a stronger dollar and speculation about even more aggressive action, investors are locking in profits. In this macro environment, Asian currencies and emerging-market assets are under notable strain, forcing some central banks to intervene to support their currencies. Follow the link for more details.

We’re proud to have been the main sponsor of the expo and to have taken an active part in it, presenting the InstaForex brand as a reliable and ambitious player on the global stage, while also building valuable connections and strengthening our presence in the regional market.

The event kicked off with an opening speech by our company representative, setting a confident and business-focused tone for the entire expo. The speech emphasized InstaForex’s commitment to growth, innovation, and supporting both clients and partners.

Our booth in Lagos attracted a lot of attention — more than 200 visitors stopped by over the course of the event. They got to explore our products, discuss trading opportunities with our experts, and the luckiest among them walked away with valuable cash prizes — including the grand prize of $10,000.

At the close of the expo, our company was honored with an official certificate as the main sponsor of the Lagos Expo — a recognition of our continued efforts to set high standards for service quality in global markets.

We’d like to thank everyone who joined us at the event and invite you to stay tuned for more. There are many more meetings, exciting events, and new opportunities ahead — all with InstaForex!

The rebound was driven by UK economic data, which exceeded expectations in almost every category. September GDP, which measures the total value of goods and services produced by the country over the month, increased by 0.2% after remaining unchanged at 0.0% in August, while the forecast was close to zero. Industrial production rose by 0.3%, against expectations of a 0.3% decline. Manufacturing output increased by 0.7%, compared with an expected decline of 0.5%, while construction output rebounded from a 0.5% decline to growth of 0.8%.

Quarterly GDP growth of 0.7% confirmed expectations and exceeded the previous reading of 0.5%. Overall, the economic picture improved considerably compared with the situation seen in recent weeks, when data more often disappointed market participants.

These figures are important for the Bank of England. On November 5, Andrew Bailey said that a second rate increase was more likely than not, although he noted that the outlook depended partly on energy prices. The Bank raised its interest rate to 4.00%. The market had continued to assign roughly equal probabilities to a rate increase and no change in December, but the stronger economic data have strengthened the case for another increase.

Market attention will now shift to the United States, where there are several potential catalysts for renewed demand for the dollar. Weekly initial jobless claims data will be released, showing the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. The forecast stands at 195,000, compared with 189,000 previously. This will be followed by October existing home sales, which are expected to reach 3.87 million, down from 3.99 million. However, the main focus will be on speeches by Federal Reserve officials. Beth Hammack, Michael Barr, Austan Goolsbee, and Mary Daly are scheduled to speak. On November 5, Hammack spoke about the need for restrictive monetary policy, while Barr stressed the need to remain prepared to raise interest rates in early September. Earlier this week, Goolsbee described the inflation report as concerning. In this context, a hawkish tone from Fed officials could restore demand for the dollar. The pound is therefore likely to remain under pressure through the end of the day, while the UK economic data have provided only partial support.

Momentum

The price is currently trading around 1.3274, almost at the upper boundary of the range, while the lower boundary is at 1.3241. A move beyond either boundary is called a breakout, but a single test of the level is not sufficient. The price needs to consolidate beyond it, meaning that several consecutive five-minute candles must close above or below the level. Otherwise, the move could turn out to be a false breakout, followed by a return to the range.

The key resistance level is 1.3275. Consolidation above this level would open the way toward 1.3301 and then 1.3328. The price is already testing this level, and it briefly moved above it overnight, reaching 1.3281, but failed to hold there and subsequently declined. Buyers now have support from the strong UK economic data. If the Fed does not adopt a more hawkish tone, a breakout is possible. However, the probability of a move higher appears lower than that of a downward reversal, particularly given that four Fed officials are scheduled to speak today.

The key support level is 1.3241. Consolidation below it would open the way toward 1.3209 and then 1.3183. This is the primary scenario. Today's low of 1.3249 did not reach the level, but if Fed officials deliver hawkish remarks and US economic data prove strong, demand for the dollar could return, potentially pushing the price down by more than 30 points in a short period. Entry should be considered only after candles close below the level.

Mean Reversion

There are two key levels here: 1.3286 and 1.3245. The upper level of 1.3286 is 11 points above the breakout level of 1.3275 and also above the overnight high of 1.3281. The scenario is as follows: the price breaks above 1.3275, reaches 1.3286, fails to extend its gains, and then moves back below the level. In this case, short positions could be considered, with a stop-loss placed slightly above 1.3286. However, if the price consolidates firmly above 1.3286, this would confirm a genuine breakout, and short positions should be avoided at that level. A reversal is more likely if Fed officials adopt a hawkish tone and the positive UK economic data have already been priced in.

The lower level of 1.3245 is only 4 pips below the breakout level of 1.3241, so beginners should exercise particular caution here. A single test of the level is not enough to determine the nature of the price movement. If the price breaks below 1.3241, reaches 1.3245, fails to extend its decline, and then moves back above the level, long positions could be considered, with a stop-loss placed slightly below 1.3241. If the price instead consolidates below this level, the move would confirm a breakout, and long positions should be avoided. The difference between these two scenarios may become clear within just a few minutes. Therefore, it is better to avoid trading the initial reaction in this zone and wait for a clearer signal.

Money Expo Abu Dhabi is an international platform that brings together thousands of industry professionals — investors, traders, brokerage firms, financial institutions, and tech startups. This two-day event will become a true hub for everyone interested in the latest trends, cutting-edge solutions, and emerging opportunities in the financial markets.

InstaForex will be joining the exhibition as a Diamond Sponsor, highlighting our commitment to being at the forefront of the industry and supporting initiatives that foster the growth of professional trading. This event is not just a chance to showcase our top-tier products and services — it’s a unique opportunity to build new business connections, share insights, and better understand the needs of our clients and partners.

At the InstaForex booth, you can look forward to:

– One-on-one conversations with our team members

– Live presentations of our innovative solutions and investment tools

– Exclusive special offers available only to expo attendees

– In-depth information about our partnership program, featuring attractive bonuses and unique terms

Whether you’re a seasoned trader, a beginner investor, or looking for a reliable partner in the world of finance — meeting InstaForex at Money Expo Abu Dhabi will open new horizons for growth and success.

Let’s shape the future of finance together — in Abu Dhabi.

The ECB's Economic Bulletin, which the bank publishes to explain its assessment of the economy and prices, contained no new information. It reiterated what the market already knew following the October 29 meeting. Interest rates were left unchanged at 2.50%, inflation accelerated to 3.8% in September, and the Governing Council has no predetermined path for interest rates. At the time, Christine Lagarde said that the Council had discussed a rate hike but had concluded that it could afford to wait. The bulletin contained neither new hawkish signals nor any indication of faster monetary tightening. Expectations of a rate hike to 2.75% at the December 17 meeting therefore remain unchanged.

The current move looks much more like a technical correction. The euro lost more than 140 points over two days, and after such a sustained wave of selling, a rebound is almost automatic. Many market participants are closing short positions, or bets on a decline, which is pushing the price higher. Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop for the dollar has not changed. The probability of a Fed rate hike in December is estimated at more than 96%, up from approximately 80% on November 9, while US Treasury yields remain high. Therefore, the euro's recovery appears limited and is unlikely to develop into a sustained reversal for now.

Market attention will now shift to the United States, where there are plenty of potential catalysts for renewed demand for the dollar. Weekly initial jobless claims data will be released, showing the number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits for the first time after losing their jobs. The forecast is 195,000, following 189,000 previously, while the previous reading matched the lowest level since 1969. Such a low number of claims indicates that relatively few people in the United States are losing their jobs, providing another argument in favor of a hawkish Fed. Existing home sales for October will follow, with expectations of 3.87 million compared with 3.99 million previously.

However, the main focus will be on speeches by members of the Federal Reserve's policy committee. Beth Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, and Daly are scheduled to speak. On November 5, Hammack spoke about the need to maintain restrictive monetary policy. In early September, Barr stressed the need to remain prepared to raise interest rates, while Goolsbee described this week's inflation report as concerning. If they maintain this tone, the dollar could receive another boost.

Momentum

The price is currently trading near 1.1098, just below the upper boundary of the 1.1069–1.1102 level. A move beyond this boundary is known as a breakout, but a single touch is not enough. The price needs to establish itself beyond the level, meaning that several consecutive five-minute candles must close above or below it. Otherwise, there is a risk of a false breakout, after which the price may return to the range.

The key resistance level is 1.1102. A sustained move above it would open the way toward 1.1133 and then 1.1167. The price is just four points away from this level, so a breakout could occur at any moment. However, further gains may prove difficult because the current rise lacks fundamental support. The first target at 1.1133 is also close to Friday's low of 1.1131, which has now become resistance. Further upside would require a new catalyst, and the only potential catalyst would be unexpectedly dovish comments from Fed officials. This scenario appears unlikely.

On the other hand, the key level is 1.1069. A sustained move below it would open the way toward 1.1036 and then 1.1004. This is the primary scenario. Overnight, the price had already briefly moved below this level, reaching 1.1067, before immediately recovering. Therefore, a second test could result in a breakout. However, the level is still relatively far away, nearly 30 points below the current price, and the morning rebound must first lose momentum. Entering a position on the first touch would not be advisable.

Mean Reversion

There are two levels to watch here: 1.1110 and 1.1064. The upper reference level at 1.1110 is eight points above the breakout point of 1.1102 and is currently the more important of the two.

The strategy is as follows. The price breaks above 1.1102, reaches 1.1110, fails to extend its gains, and then moves back below the level. In that case, selling opportunities may arise, with a Stop Loss placed slightly above 1.1110. However, if the price establishes itself firmly above 1.1110, this would constitute a genuine breakout, and selling would no longer be advisable. A reversal is more likely if Fed officials deliver hawkish comments and labor market data comes in stronger than expected.

The lower reference level at 1.1064 is five points below the breakout point of 1.1069. Beginners should exercise particular caution here. It is impossible to determine the nature of the move based on a single touch. If the price breaks below 1.1069, reaches 1.1064, fails to extend its decline, and then moves back above the level, buying opportunities may arise, with a Stop Loss placed sufficiently below 1.1064. If the price instead establishes itself below that level, this would be a genuine breakout, and buying would not be advisable. The difference between these two scenarios may become clear within just a few minutes, so it is better to avoid trading the initial reaction in this zone.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on April 18 and 21, 2025.

April 18, 2025

Closed full day:

• Metals
• CFD Stocks
• Futures
• Indices
• US Dollar Index
• S&P 500 Index
• Dow Jones Industrial Average
• NASDAQ 100
• FTSE 100
• Nikkei 225
• Hang Seng Index
• DAX 30
• Swiss Market Index
• IBEX35
• Netherlands 25 Index
• FTSE MIB
• STOXX Europe 50
• Australia 200 Index
• CAC40

April 21, 2025

Closed full day:

• FTSE 100
• Hang Seng Index
• DAX 30
• Swiss Market Index
• IBEX35
• Netherlands 25 Index
• FTSE MIB
• STOXX Europe 50
• Australia 200 Index
• CAC40

The test of the 159.81 price level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by just 12 points, with no further movement.

The yen remains under pressure from the dollar, and it is important to note that the USD/JPY exchange rate has approached the psychological 160 level. This morning, Mimura, who is responsible for currency policy at Japan's Ministry of Finance, stated that exchange rate movements in recent days had been too rapid and reminded markets that it was still too early to forget the events of last summer. He did not specify any particular levels, but the message was clear: if the exchange rate rises above 160, the risk of intervention will once again become significant.

However, dollar support is clearly expected to persist in the second half of the day. The US weekly jobless claims report is due, with a forecast of 195K following the previous reading of 189K. Existing home sales are also expected, with a forecast of 3.87M compared with 3.99M previously. Several FOMC members will also speak. Their comments have provided substantial support for the dollar this week. The speeches by Hammack and Goolsbee are of particular interest. In the event of hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, the pair could test 160. Above this level, warnings from the Ministry of Finance could give way to actual intervention.

As for the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Buying USD/JPY is planned today when the price reaches the entry point near 159.81 (the thin green line on the chart), with a target of a rise to 160.23 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 160.23, long positions will be closed and short positions opened in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level. A rise in the pair today can be expected only if US economic data is strong. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just begun moving upward from it.

Scenario No. 2: Buying USD/JPY is also planned today if the price tests 159.60 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 159.81 and 160.23 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Selling USD/JPY is planned today after the price breaks below 159.60 (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 159.23, where short positions will be closed and long positions opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Downward pressure on the pair could return today if the central bank intervenes. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just begun moving downward from it.

Scenario No. 2: Selling USD/JPY is also planned today if the price tests 159.81 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 159.60 and 159.23 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take overbought and oversold conditions into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially if risk management rules are not followed and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Why you can’t miss this event

Traders Fair Lagos 2025 is not just an exhibition. It is a global platform to connect with leading financial experts. This event brings together traders, brokers, analysts, and investors from all over the world to explore trends, strategies, and technologies shaping the future of financial markets.

The exhibition will take place at the luxurious Lagos Continental Hotel, located in the heart of Nigeria’s financial hub – Victoria Island. It is the perfect place to network, exchange knowledge, and discover cutting-edge trading solutions.

What to expect at the InstaForex booth

● Exclusive raffles and giveaways – do not leave without a bonus!

● Presentations of advanced trading tools and technologies

● Consultations with top investment experts

● A chance to win bonuses of up to $10,000!

We have prepared special offers available only to exhibition visitors. Do not miss this chance to unlock new opportunities in trading and investment with InstaForex!

Join the global trading community

Traders Fair Lagos 2025 is not only your chance to explore the latest innovations in the world of finance, but also a powerful networking opportunity. The event features educational seminars, panel discussions, and masterclasses, where top traders and analysts will share their knowledge and strategies.

Save the date: April 5, 2025

Do not miss Africa’s biggest financial event and make the most of your partnership with InstaForex.

Venue: The Lagos Continental Hotel, 52a Kofo Abayomi Street, Victoria Island, Lagos, Nigeria

Stay tuned for updates and special offers!

The test of the 1.3267 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by only 11 points.

The pound received the support it had been lacking in recent days: strong domestic economic data. UK GDP increased by 0.7% quarter over quarter in the third quarter and by 1.9% year over year, while the monthly figure for September exceeded expectations, coming in at 0.2%. Industrial production figures followed, showing an increase rather than the expected decline, with output rising by 0.3% in industrial production and by 0.7% in the manufacturing sector. These figures should have strengthened expectations of further Bank of England rate increases, with the current rate standing at 4.00%. Nevertheless, positive UK data are competing with US factors, which currently have a stronger influence on the market. US Treasury yields remain elevated, and the probability of a Fed rate hike in December is estimated at 96%.

Despite receiving relatively strong domestic economic data, the pound will once again become dependent on the dollar in the second half of the day. US weekly jobless claims are due, with forecasts of 195K compared with 189K previously, along with existing home sales, expected at 3.87M compared with 3.99M in the previous reading. These figures are unlikely to be the main market drivers. The primary focus will be on speeches and interviews by FOMC members Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, and Daly. As noted above, the market estimates the probability of a December Fed rate hike at 96%, and hawkish remarks from these officials could restore demand for the dollar.

As for the intraday trading strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: The pound can be bought today when the price reaches the entry level around 1.3281 (the green line on the chart), with an upward target of 1.3310 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3310, the long position can be closed and a short position opened in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move downward from that level. The pound could appreciate today if US economic data comes in weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario #2: The pound can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.3265 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and could trigger an upward market reversal. An increase toward the opposite levels of 1.3281 and 1.3310 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: The pound can be sold today following a break below 1.3265 (the red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3239, where the short position can be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point upward move from that level. Strong selling pressure on sterling could return if US economic data comes in stronger than expected. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2: The pound can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.3281 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and could trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3265 and 1.3239 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further upward movement above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further downward movement below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is generally best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place Stop Loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without Stop Loss orders, the entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially if proper money management is not applied and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently an unsuccessful strategy for an intraday trader.

As the most vibrant holiday of the year approaches, InstaForex is launching its traditional Chancy Deposit contest! You have a unique chance to win $8,000 and make this holiday truly unforgettable!

How to participate?

It's simple:

• Fund your InstaForex trading account
• Wait for the winner to be announced

What to do with your prize money?

Anything you want: dream shopping, an unforgettable trip, or new, more profitable investments. The money is in your hands!

Hurry, the campaign is time-limited!

Top up your account and join the race for $8,000 today. Who knows, this could be your lucky day.

Register

The test of the 1.1073 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line. This confirmed a valid entry point for selling the euro, but the expected decline in the pair never materialized.

The euro's current rebound following the ECB bulletin appears to be technical rather than fundamental. The document confirmed that inflation reached 3.8% in September, energy prices remain the main source of inflationary pressure, and inflation risks are tilted to the upside. None of this is new information for the market. At the same time, the regulator acknowledged that financial conditions have tightened, demand for loans has declined, and risks to economic growth are tilted to the downside. This combination provides no basis for a sustained euro recovery, as it merely confirms the scenario already priced in by the market: one rate hike in December, with no commitment to further increases.

The euro will now face the impact of US economic events in the second half of the day. Weekly jobless claims are expected to reach 195K, indicating that the US labor market remains resilient. Existing home sales for October are forecast at 3.87M, compared with 3.99M in the previous month. However, the speeches by FOMC members Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, and Daly will be much more important, as the market has already priced in a 96% probability of a December rate hike. Any hawkish remarks could further strengthen these expectations.

Looking at previous developments, Hammack voted in favor of a rate hike on October 28 and spoke in support of restrictive monetary policy on November 5. Her rhetoric has not changed since then. Lagarde is scheduled to speak in the evening, but until then, the dollar may have an opportunity to strengthen its position. If Fed officials make hawkish comments, demand for the US currency is likely to return, while the euro will remain under downward pressure.

As for the intraday trading strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches the 1.1105 level (the green line on the chart), with an upward target of 1.1129. At 1.1129, the position can be closed, and a short position can be opened in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move from the entry point. The euro could appreciate today if US economic data comes in weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario #2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1089 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and could trigger an upward market reversal. An increase toward the opposite levels of 1.1105 and 1.1129 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: The euro can be sold after the price reaches 1.1089 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1065, where the position can be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move upward from that level. Selling pressure on the pair is likely to return if US economic data exceeds expectations. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1105 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and could trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1089 and 1.1065 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further upward movement above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further downward movement below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is generally best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place Stop Loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without Stop Loss orders, the entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially if proper money management is not applied and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently an unsuccessful strategy for an intraday trader.

Anyone can try their luck! All you need to do is just top up your trading account anytime from the start to the end of February, while the promotion is active.

Grab your chance to receive a luxurious gift by February 14th! May fortune be on your side!

Register

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed upward wave failed to break above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke below the previous low. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders have been expecting at least one more round of monetary policy tightening by the end of the year and another one next year. This factor continues to support the US currency, while economic data from the United States only increase the likelihood of a hawkish scenario.

There was virtually no significant news flow on Wednesday, but this did not discourage the bears, who continued selling as if the inflation report had been released twice, on both Tuesday and Wednesday. It is understandable that higher inflation growth rates make several rounds of FOMC monetary policy tightening more likely. However, the dollar has already been rising for three months, and bears have continued selling with only brief pauses throughout this period. Moreover, Fed officials expect inflation to slow next year.

In other words, the potential for further interest rate increases in the United States is limited in any case and does not justify the dollar's three-month rally. Christine Lagarde and the ECB are also prepared to raise interest rates further, but this has failed to provide any meaningful support for the euro. Why? In my view, the euro will undoubtedly have to regard 2026 as a negative year, but the fundamental background has not been unfavorable enough to justify its continued decline. Nevertheless, traders still have technical levels to guide their trading decisions, and market movements cannot be easily challenged.

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD has reversed in favor of the US currency once again and declined to the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1088. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and could lead to some upward movement toward the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1221. Consolidation below 1.1088 would increase the likelihood of further declines. No new emerging divergences are currently visible on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 1,263 Long positions and opened 12,634 Short positions. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 229,000, while the number of Short positions amounts to 387,000. Bears remain firmly in control, and the euro continues to be sold more frequently than it is bought. This can be attributed to the challenging geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Fed's willingness to continue tightening monetary policy. The market believes that the Fed will keep raising interest rates for as long as necessary.

Overall, large market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro over the longer term. Global developments of various kinds, which have been particularly numerous in recent years, undoubtedly influence investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Furthermore, 2026 could set a record for the number of unexpected events that could not have been anticipated in advance. For this reason, the euro is waiting for more favorable conditions.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union

• United States – Initial jobless claims (13:30 UTC).
• United States – Existing home sales (15:00 UTC).
• European Union – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (19:30 UTC).

On November 12, the economic calendar contains three events, with Christine Lagarde's speech being the only one worth particular attention. The impact of economic news on market sentiment is expected to be limited on Thursday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Buying opportunities may arise following a rebound from the 1.1081–1.1086 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1220 and 1.1270. Selling opportunities may arise today if the pair consolidates below the 1.1081–1.1086 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.0939–1.0944.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.

The last stage stood out with a mass start, where teams set off in waves of four. The team competed in the same group as Mitchel van den Brink, battling for second place until the rally’s final day.

David Křípal shared his thoughts: “We knew winning the last stage was possible. Everyone was fully focused on achieving the best result. Our strategy was full throttle and precise execution.” This stage proved that confidence and teamwork lead to success.

Third place confirmed Aleš Loprais’s status as one of the world’s top Dakar Rally drivers. For David Křípal, who transitioned from cars to trucks this year, it marked the biggest achievement in his career. Meanwhile, experienced mechanic and three-time Dakar winner Darek Rodewald celebrated his seventh podium finish.

We are proud to support exceptional athletes like the Loprais Team. Our investment in sports and this team has shown that strategic partnerships and shared goals lead to remarkable results.

Stay tuned for updates and celebrate every success with us and the Loprais Team!