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28.09.2026 09:41 AM
Ether Will Stop Living by the Old Rules

Ether trades around $2,638, barely changed over the past day, with a market capitalization of roughly $323 billion. It is surprising that Vitalik Buterin's Sunday essay, "A Cryptographic World Computer," didn't move the price. The Ethereum co-founder said that the network in 2030 can still be called a blockchain, but it will operate differently. "It's no longer just a blockchain," Buterin wrote. By his description, it will be a hybrid of a blockchain, cryptographic proofs, and networks of computers that operate off-chain.

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His starting point is that today a computer that fully verifies Ethereum repeats the computations behind transactions. It checks whether the sender had sufficient funds and whether the application behaved according to its rules. That repetition helps preserve the network's integrity, but it comes at a cost, because adding more computers does not increase transaction throughput. Each node spends effort verifying roughly the same activity. As a result, the network hits a ceiling, and users suffer most, paying for limited capacity.

Buterin sees a solution in new cryptographic tools. One computer processes transactions and issues a compact mathematical proof that it acted by the rules, while others verify that proof far faster than they would re-execute the entire original computation. Selective checks confirm that transaction records remain available to anyone who wants them. Different computers can solve different tasks and still audit each other.

The second block of the plan concerns privacy. Today balance checks often mean querying an external server at an address, and that operator can learn which accounts a person watches even if payments themselves are obscured. Buterin proposes hiding such queries together with payment details and the rules by which an account approves spending.

Buterin does not hide the timeline. He expects the Hegota upgrade scheduled for next year to be the last conventional Ethereum fork, after which the main story will be mathematical proofs, tools for automated program verification and protection against future quantum computers. By 2030, he estimates payments should become final in roughly 8–32 seconds, although cost and privacy constraints for complex applications will remain.

I view this as a roadmap rather than an immediate catalyst, and one should not expect a price impulse from the essay. In the near term, Ether will likely continue to trade around $2,650, following the broader market backdrop, while the narrative around privacy and post-quantum protection will build institutional trust over the longer term.

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For Bitcoin, the plan is built around the range between support at 82,900 and resistance at 83,300, with the next reference points at 82,300 below and 83,900 above. I analyze two mirrored directions, and each includes a breakout scenario and a rebound scenario.

For buy positions, the first variant occurs when price moves above 83,300 and closes/holds above that level. I enter a long only if it stays above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. The target is 83,900, where I take profit and may consider reversing into a short on a pullback. The second buy variant works in the opposite situation: if price drops below 82,900 but fails to hold and returns back — i.e., the downside breakout proves false — then I buy on that return, with an initial target of 83,300 and, if price holds above it, a further target of 83,900.

For sell positions, the picture is mirrored. If price breaks below 82,900 and a close under that level confirms the breakout, while the moving average sits above price and Awesome is below zero, I consider a short position with a target of 82,300. If price climbs above 83,300 but cannot sustain it and falls back below the level (an unconfirmed upside breakout), I sell on the return, first targeting 82,900 and then 82,300 if weakness persists.

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For Ether the logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale. The range is much narrower here — support 2,638 and resistance 2,657, only 19 points apart, with further references at 2,615 below and 2,683 above. Because the levels are so close, a single touch proves nothing, and I wait for a hold or a return before acting.

For buy positions, the breakout scenario triggers if price holds above 2,657 provided it is above the 50-day moving average and Awesome is above zero—target 2,683, where I take profits and look for a short on a pullback. The rebound variant is used when price pierces 2,638 to the downside but doesn't stay below and returns above—I buy that return with an initial target of 2,657 and, if it holds, extend to 2,683.

For sell positions, the breakout scenario starts with a close below 2,638 when the moving average is above price and Awesome is below zero; the target then is 2,615. The rebound-selling variant is considered after an upside move above 2,657 that fails to hold and returns below; I sell the return, aiming first for 2,638 and then 2,615 if pressure continues.

Both indicators — the moving average and the Awesome — are used solely as filters to weed out false moves, not as independent reasons to enter early. I make decisions only after price actually confirms the specified levels.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2026
EUR
Summary
Neutral
Urgency
1 day
Analytic
Maxim Magdalinin
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