Bitcoin has already fallen to around $67,700 — the 200-week moving average — and shows no signs of bouncing back. Intraday, the drop reached about 5%.

What's worrying is that the $70,000 support many called the three-month floor has been breached, and the 21-week and 200-day averages lost that week near $73,200 are now acting as resistance. Recall Tom Lee's November 3 comment, "we are at the bottom," came when Bitcoin was around $80,500; since then BTC has lost roughly 18%, and the breakeven cost for short-term holders at $75,691 is now about 9% above the market.

Pressure on the market comes from several directions. High oil prices and elevated inflation have strengthened expectations of further Federal Reserve hikes. After October's US CPI printed 0.4% m/m vs. 0.3% forecast (core 0.3% vs. 0.2%), the market has fully priced in a 25-bp move in December, and futures imply further 25-bp steps in January and March. Yesterday, Fed officials, including Daly, said further tightening will be required, and Williams called inflation too high even in the latest data.

A second factor is political. Democrats are set to retake both chambers of the US Congress next year, raising expectations of closer regulation of the industry. The third factor is institutional buyers stepping back for a second week. From October 30 to November 11, net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $2.5 billion. Add a $14.2 billion decline in stablecoin supply over 30 days, and even less fresh capital is available to buy rebounds.

I believe that as long as Treasury yields remain near their highs and ETFs don't return to inflows, a move back above $70,000 is unlikely, and any bounces will be short-lived. The first test is the US PPI: hot numbers would send BTC toward the 200-week moving average at $67,755, which was tested today during Asian trading. Beyond that lies a tactical capitulation zone near $64,500. One green session is not enough for a trend reversal: we would need three consecutive days of ETF inflows and a return above the lost 21-week average at $73,078. Until those conditions are met, I do not expect a sustainable rally.

Bitcoin

The current range runs between 67,700 and 68,800, and the plan is built around two mirrored directions with full breakout and pullback scenarios. For buying, the first scenario assumes a break above 68,800 with a target of 69,900 — a sensible level to take profit and consider a short on the pullback — provided price remains above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. The second scenario applies if a break below 67,700 proves false and price returns to the range. In that case, a pullback off 67,700 offers a buy with an initial target of 68,800 and a secondary target of 69,900.

For selling, the first scenario requires a confirmed close below 67,700 with a target of 66,300, provided the moving average is above price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a break above 68,800 fails to hold, a pullback from that boundary yields a short targeting a return to 67,700 and then 66,300.

Ether

The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale. The working range is 1,899–1,919. Buy on a break above 1,919 with a target of 1,949 — take profit there and consider a short on the pullback — or buy on a rebound from 1,899 after a false break below, with targets first 1,919 and then 1,949. In both cases, price should be above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator above zero.

Sell on a confirmed close below 1,899, targeting 1,867, provided the 50-day average is above price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero; or short on a failed break above 1,919, targeting 1,899 then 1,867.

Use both indicators only as filters to weed out false moves, not as standalone reasons to enter early; make trading decisions only after price confirms the specified levels.