Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1069 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line. This confirmed that the entry point for buying the euro was correct, but the pair failed to move higher.

The euro is entering the second half of the day with support from the upward revision to eurozone GDP, although the overall picture remains mixed. Third-quarter economic growth was revised to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, compared with the forecast of 0.4%. This is above the preliminary estimate released on October 30 and matches the second-quarter reading. Annual growth was confirmed at 1.3%. At the same time, employment increased by only 0.1%, against expectations of 0.2%, while the trade deficit reached 8.7 billion, compared with the forecast of 4.5 billion.

Inflation data from individual countries confirmed previous estimates. In France, consumer prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month, with annual inflation at 3.4%. In Spain, annual inflation reached 4.9%, while German wholesale prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month after rising by 1.9% in September. Against this background, eurozone inflation accelerated to 4.0% in October, and the ECB is expected to raise its deposit rate from 2.50% to 2.75% on December 17.

The US PPI remains the key indicator for the euro. In September, it rose by 1.3%, compared with the forecast of 0.5%, providing only temporary support for the dollar at the time. However, US consumer price data have now exceeded expectations for three consecutive months, while futures markets are pricing in three Fed rate hikes. Strong PPI data could put renewed pressure on EUR/USD, while weaker figures could give the euro an opportunity to advance toward the end of the week.

As for the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: The euro can be bought today if the price reaches the 1.1062 level (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1100. At 1.1100, the position will be closed, and a short position will also be opened in anticipation of a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro could advance today if US economic data are weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1048 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair could then rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1062 and 1.1100.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The euro can be sold after the price reaches the 1.1048 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1025, where the position will be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points from that level. Renewed pressure on the pair is possible if US economic data are stronger than expected. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1062 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair could then decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1048 and 1.1025.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold conditions.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should make market-entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially if risk management rules are not followed and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally flawed strategy for an intraday trader.