On Thursday, EUR/USD continued to decline and consolidated below the 1.1081–1.1086 support level. Thus, the euro's decline could continue today toward the next support level at 1.0939–1.0944. Consolidation above the 1.1081–1.1086 level would favor the euro and could lead to a modest recovery toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1220.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The last completed upward wave failed to break above the previous peak, while the new downward wave broke below the previous low. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders expect at least one more round of monetary policy tightening by the end of the year and another one next year. This factor continues to support the US dollar, while US economic data only increases the likelihood of a hawkish policy scenario.

The fundamental backdrop on Thursday was very weak. The reasons behind the bears' latest attacks lie elsewhere. UK economic and industrial production data failed to provide support even for the British pound, let alone the euro. The US home sales report came in below traders' expectations and therefore could not support the US dollar. Initial jobless claims in the United States were higher than forecast. Thus, none of Thursday's three reports could even theoretically have supported the bears. The continued strength of the bears is likely attributable to the latest US inflation report, released on Tuesday, which delivered mixed results. Due to last year's government shutdown, October data was unavailable for comparison, so only the monthly figure was released on Tuesday. It came in 0.1 percentage points above market expectations, although it showed an overall slowdown compared with the previous month. Nevertheless, traders began anticipating even more hawkish action from the Fed, which triggered the breakout from the sideways trading range.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar once again and consolidated below the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1088. Thus, the decline could continue toward the next retracement level of 200.0% at 1.0940. Consolidation above 1.1088 would allow traders to anticipate a modest recovery toward 1.1221. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 1,263 Long positions and opened 12,634 Short positions. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 229,000, while the number of Short positions amounts to 387,000. The bears retain the advantage, and the euro continues to be sold more frequently than it is bought. This is attributable to the difficult geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Fed's readiness to continue tightening monetary policy. The market expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates for as long as necessary.

Overall, major market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro over the long term. Certainly, various global events, which have been abundant in recent years, affect investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Moreover, 2026 could set a record for the number of unforeseen events. Therefore, the euro is waiting for a more favorable opportunity.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• European Union – Third-quarter GDP growth (10:00 UTC).
• United States – Producer Price Index (13:30 UTC).

On November 13, the economic calendar contains two events, one of which is the US PPI report. Economic data could influence market sentiment on Friday during the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Long positions could be considered following an hourly close above the 1.1081–1.1086 level, with a target of 1.1220. Short positions could have been opened following an hourly close below the 1.1081–1.1086 level, with a target of 1.0939–1.0944. These positions can remain open.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.